Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
136 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Any residual sea-breeze convection lingering through the early
evening hours to dissipate by sunset allowing for mainly stable
conditions across the region overnight. A weak upper-level shear
axis across the mid to lower Mississippi River valley to allow for
a chance for scattered diurnally driven convection again on
Tuesday mainly from Monroe to Lufkin and points eastward. Upper-
level ridge to the west will maintain mainly dry conditions across
northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas
bringing with it high temperatures approaching 100 degrees. At
this time, the combination of temperature and relative humidity
values do not support a widespread Heat Advisory threat as
afternoon heat index values will average around 100 to 105
degrees.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday night with
overnight lows forecast to range from the mid to upper 70s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Starting 12z Wednesday...Upper level ridge will will remain in place
across the southwest CONUS extending eastward into our region. As
such Wednesday will remain hot across the region with heat index
values reaching closer to Heat Advisory criteria. There will remain
a chance for some diurnally-driven precipitation chances across our
southern zones, generally along and southeast of a line from near
Hemphill Texas to El Dorado Arkansas. Meanwhile, models indicate
that an easterly wave will develop along the Gulf Coast and slowly
push westward. This will also increase our chances for showers and
thunderstorms for our eastern and southern zones for Wednesday and
Thursday, possibly becoming more widespread by Friday afternoon.

Wednesday will be the "warmest" day of the upcoming long-term
forecast period with temperatures actually decreasing a degree or
two each day as we head into the weekend. Friday's afternoon high
temperatures currently look to range from the lower to mid 90s
across most of the region, which will be nice. Moving further into
the weekend, precipitation chances will remain in place for portions
of the area with highs ranging around the mid 90s to perhaps the
upper 90s for some locations. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

A weak upper-level trough lingering across the region could allow
for VCTS conditions across MLU/LFK/ELD through 02/00Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period
ending 02/18Z. SSW winds up to 10 knots today to become south at
around 5 knots tonight, becoming SW and increasing to 5 to 10
knots on Tuesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  98  78  99 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  75  97  75  96 /  20  40  10  30
DEQ  74  99  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  78  99  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  74  94  74  96 /  10  30  10  20
TYR  79 100  79 101 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  77  99  78  99 /  10  20   0   0
LFK  75 100  76 100 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021745-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Slightly milder conditions are expected today with afternoon high
temperatures forecast to climb into the middle-to-upper 90s across
most of the region. High humidity values will still allow for heat
index readings to range from 100-105 degrees during peak afternoon
heating.

Additionally, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will gradually
develop and expand with daytime heating as a weak frontal boundary
continues to linger just north of the region. Some storms may
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This threat will
primarily exist this afternoon through early to mid evening before
storms gradually weaken with the loss of heating.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible on Tuesday.
Otherwise, a gradual warming and drying trend will resume thereafter
with heat advisories likely returning throughout much of this week
while thunderstorm chances increase again slightly by the middle of
the week. However, no organized threat of severe weather is
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
452 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

LAZ018-020-012215-
Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-
452 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Grant
and southeastern Natchitoches Parishes through 515 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Colfax, or near Lena. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colfax, Dry Prong, Aloha and Lake Iatt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Latt, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 9270 3145 9268 3144 9270 3145 9271
      3147 9271 3147 9269 3152 9272 3149 9276
      3148 9276 3147 9278 3151 9287 3169 9279
      3158 9251 3142 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 207DEG 1KT 3153 9274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
707 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

LAZ013-020030-
Jackson LA-
707 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Jackson
Parish through 730 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonesboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jonesboro, Hodge, North Hodge, East Hodge and Quitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 9277 3241 9269 3236 9251 3217 9262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 299DEG 3KT 3232 9268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24