Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
109 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals, squall line from near KTXK to near
KTYR with strong gusts to 40KT possible for a couple of hours and
then SW winds and improving skies behind the line of TS. Fropa
will not be for a day yet. This squall line will progress through
KELD/KSHV/KGGG/KLFK over the next few hours with KMLU 09-10Z for
SQ arrival there. Ceilings and any light br will improve right
after daybreak with a warm day ahead. NW15-25KT will spread into
the area 06/12-18Z. NW flow will keep us cooler/dry thru wknd. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022/

UPDATE...

Tornado Watch 93 was issued by SPC during this update. In addition
to adding the watch, a few adjustments were made to POPS and
temps to account for timing of storms moving into the region
overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on
track. A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms has moved
into our zones north of Interstate 30 over the past hour or so.
Ahead of the line, storms are starting to develop in the warm
sector south of a warm front in East Texas and adjacent Northern
Louisiana. Look for the aforementioned broken line to fill in and
get stronger as it pushes southeast across the region. Damaging
winds remain to main threat, but can't rule out an isolated
tornado threat, along with quarter size hail. Storms should move
out of the region just after sunrise. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Low level moisture advection continues this afternoon, evidenced
by the extensive cu field that has developed over E TX/extreme SE
Ok/adjacent SW AR and Wrn LA. The afternoon sfc analysis indicates
that the warm front has lifted N to just S of a TYR, to OCH, to
Lower Toledo Bend line as of 20Z, with the warm/moist sector
expanding farther N across E TX into much of N LA/far Srn AR this
evening and shortly after midnight tonight. However, the Nwd
advance of this moist sector may have its Nwd progress deterred
late this evening and especially overnight as convection
develops/becomes more numerous along this frontal bndry in
association with increased large scale forcing ahead of the
advancing upper trough to our W, which is beginning to enter far W
TX attm.

In fact, the greatest instability has spilled Nwd across much of
Cntrl TX this afternoon, indicative of SBCapes of 1000-1500 J/kg
which has pooled just S of a stationary frontal bndry extending
from NW TX into Srn OK N of the Red River. Bulk shear has
increased to 50-60 kts from NW TX into SW OK where sct convection
has begin to develop near/ahead of this bndry into the more
unstable air mass, with convection expected to increase through
the remainder of the afternoon into the evening as additional
large scale forcing increases ahead of the approaching trough.
What little instability has developed across E TX/Wrn LA is
expected to diminish this evening with the loss of heating,
although instability will increase by late evening and especially
during the overnight hours as the warm front continues to lift N
across E TX/N LA. While SBCapes are progged to increase to
500-1000 J/Kg across the warm sector late tonight, mid level lapse
rates remain progged to increase to 7.5-8.0+ C/km along/just ahead
of the base of the approaching trough, which should maintain the
convection's strong to severe intensity as they enter the area
late this evening. Damaging winds and embedded isolated tornadoes
will be the main threats within the developing QLCS, with these
threats persisting overnight as the SWrly LLJ remains progged to
increase to near 50kts late this evening and overnight from Deep E
TX into N LA, further maintaining its intensity even as portions
of this line enters a slightly more stable environment late. Have
maintained severe wording from late this evening through the
overnight hours areawide, although there will be a threat for
heavy rainfall across portions of NE TX/SE OK/SW AR where the
deterministic and hi-res consensus suggests widespread 2-3+
inches common over these areas before the line surges SE across
the remainder of the area. These areas will be able to take the
rain and thus, no Flash Flood Watch is planned attm.

While the strongest convection should be exiting the Srn zones
around or just prior to daybreak Tuesday, some lingering rains may
persist through mid-morning, where chance pops remain until much
drier air entrains E in wake of the trough passage. WSW bndry lyr
winds will allow for a quick erosion of the low cigs from W to E
by late morning, with strong insolation in this WSW flow regime
resulting in much above normal temps returning areawide for the
afternoon. Have bumped up max temps 1-2 degrees areawide from the
NBM to account for this, with the lingering cu field expected to
diminish by sunset with the loss of heating. An upper low entering
the Nrn Plains Tuesday will also dig into the Upper Midwest
Tuesday night, which will reinforce a strong cold front into the
region after 06Z Wednesday. While some low level moisture pooling
may occur along this bndry, it does not appear to be significant
enough to generate -SHRA, but wouldn't be surprised that a few
isolated -SHRA may be squeezed out mainly over extreme NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR, where silent 10 pops were inserted. The cooler and much
drier conditions will be most observed during the day Wednesday,
with these below normal temps expected for the remainder of the
work week. /15/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

A weak frontal boundary will shift east across the region on
Wednesday with a slight chance of elevated post-frontal rainfall
possible in its wake across mainly south-central Arkansas and
northeast Louisiana. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon to range
from the lower 70s across the I-30 corridor to the lower 80s along
and ahead of the front across portions of north Louisiana.

High pressure building behind the surface front and departing low
across the Great Lakes will stretch from the northern Gulf of Mexico
through Texas into the Great Plains and far north into Canada. This
will allow for continued cold air advection through the early part
of the weekend with temperatures gradually falling each day. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s to near 70 on Thursday to dip
into the low to mid 60s on Friday. Overnight lows to fall into the
mid 30s to lower 40s by Saturday morning.

High pressure to shift east on Saturday afternoon allowing for
southerly winds to return to the region bringing a gradual warming
trend. Overnight lows to quickly rebound into the mid to upper 40s
on Saturday night with highs on Sunday in the lower 80s. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  76  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
MLU  64  79  48  69 /   0  30  10   0
DEQ  54  73  43  66 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  60  73  47  66 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  60  74  45  67 /  10  20   0   0
TYR  60  74  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  76  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  65  81  50  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/20/15/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
443 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
443 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Thunderstorms are possible across Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas today and this
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase dramatically across
Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas this evening as a line of
strong to severe storms develops and moves into the area. The
storms will progress eastward across the remainder of the area
tonight and into Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will be
possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall amounts could result
in isolated flooding. Most locations, except for Deep East Texas,
could receive over an inch of rainfall. An axis of heavier
rainfall amounts between two and three inches will be possible
along the Interstate 30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms are likely across Southern Arkansas and Northeast
and North Central Louisiana Tuesday morning, mainly east of a line
from Magnolia, AR, to Many, LA. Some storms could be severe.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes
and large hail will be possible. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall amounts could result in isolated flooding. The storms
should exit the area by late Tuesday morning.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across portions of
Southern Arkansas and Northeast and North Central Louisiana, but
severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will be needed this evening through
Tuesday morning.

09

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