Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
948 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.UPDATE...

Afternoon forecast package looks to be on track, not necessitating
any significant updates this evening. The frontal driven
convection extending from deep east Texas into southwest Arkansas
continues to develop as it propagates eastward, with some isolated
pre frontal convection reaching severe criteria as well.
Meanwhile, an outflow dominant QLCS is pushing eastward into deep
east Texas, where it will interact with a very unstable airmass
characterized by CAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and steep lapse
rates. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 remains in effect until 1:00
AM CDT.

/26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

AVIATION...

For the 22/00Z TAFs, conditions will deteriorate through the
evening hours as thunderstorms enter area airspace from the north
and west. Some of these storms may become severe before 22/04Z,
with impacts concentrated at first from KTYR to KTXK. Other
terminals should anticipate impacts of strong to potentially
severe storms overnight and into the morning as the line gradually
pushes east. Thus, carrying widespread SHRA and TSRA, as well as
MVFR/IFR ceilings, possibly as low as LIFR. Visibilities will
likewise deteriorate in locally heavy rainfall. Will amend with
TEMPO groups as needed as shower/storm activity progresses.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  78  63  82 /  90  60  20  30
MLU  69  80  64  81 /  70  90  30  30
DEQ  59  70  58  77 /  80  30  10  30
TXK  64  70  60  79 /  90  40  10  20
ELD  63  72  58  78 /  80  70  20  20
TYR  61  74  63  81 /  90  40  10  40
GGG  63  75  63  82 /  90  50  20  30
LFK  68  83  66  84 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221115-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
612 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon
into the evening and overnight hours as a strong cold front shifts
into the region. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging
winds and hail possible, along with a non-zero tornado threat that
cannot be completely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible through the remainder of
the weekend into much of next week as the cold front will stall near
the coast and lift back northward Monday as a warm front. Meanwhile,
multiple upper level disturbances will transition across the region
through mid week and bring locally heavy rainfall with some storms.
These periods of heavy rainfall may present some possible flooding
concerns through the middle of next week with total event rainfall
amounts generally expected to range between 3-6 inches along with
isolated totals possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be needed today and tonight.

19

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE ARP               32.14N 95.01W
05/21/2022                   SMITH              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TYLER                   32.33N 95.31W
05/21/2022                   SMITH              TX   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES DOWN NEAR BROADWAY AVENUE. TREE
            DOWN NEAR UT CAMPUS.

&&

AS