Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.AVIATION...

Cold front pushing eastward across E TX this Wednesday afternoon
with numerous TSTMS along and ahead of front in unstable airmass
across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions.  Expect widespread MFVR
ceilings and VSBY along and ahead this cold front in numerous
showers and TSTMS across N LA, SW AR, and E TX.  With cold front
passage, expect VFR conditions to return behind the front in cooler,
drier, and stable airmass. /VIII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1104 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/

UPDATE...

Currently a strong cold front, oriented from SW to NE, is pushing
through the Dallas Metroplex. This front will be moving
southeast into the Arklatex this evening. Right now there is
limited convection along this front, but anticipate more showers
and thunderstorms will develop right along the front as the front
advances eastward this afternoon. However, a large bulk of the
showers and storms are being, and should continue to be, triggered
along a subtle trough feature already moving into northwestern
portions of the Four State region. Tornado Watch #120 was just
issued along and ahead of a line of bowing thunderstorms moving
through the I-30 corridor as the atmosphere contains moderate
instability and moderate to high wind shear, enough ingredients
to produce severe thunderstorms with a tornado threat, in addition
to a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The storms which
develop along the actual cold front moving in from the northwest
later this afternoon into this evening will still have at least
some severe weather threat, although the risk of tornadoes will be
reduced in comparison to storms forming ahead of this front. /50/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

A surface front and upper-trough will swing east across the
region today. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place
across the ArkLaTex with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s aiding
in destabilizing the atmosphere ahead of the front. Convection to
initiate along the frontal boundary around mid-morning with the
severe weather threat quickly increasing during the afternoon as
the capping inversion breaks. All of the ArkLaTex is covered in a
severe weather threat with the highest risk being across north
Louisiana into south-central Arkansas. Large hail, damaging winds,
and embedded tornadoes will be possible within the line.

An enhanced pressure gradient will generate southerly winds
around 15 mph today ahead of the front. Although, wind speeds
could approach 20 mph in some areas, current thinking is that
duration and magnitude of wind speeds will not be enough to
warrant a Wind Advisory.

Severe weather threat to diminish during the evening with
lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms possible across
northeast and north-central Louisiana through midnight. Overnight
low temperatures forecast to fall into the 40s tonight.

Dry conditions expected on Thursday as a surface high and weak
upper-level ridging rebuilds across the region with temperatures
forecast to climb into the mid 70s. /05/

LONG TERM....LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Overnight Thursday into Friday, the boundary responsible for our
active weather pattern early this week will begin to retrograde
northward. Upper-level pattern as we move into the long-term portion
of the forecast period continues to feature an occluding low
pressure system near the Great Lakes as it continues to track to the
northeast into Canada.

Long range models continue to indicate that the aforementioned
boundary will return to our area as a warm front on Friday, with
PoPs increasing beginning in the southeast during the day Friday,
together with a return of warmer and more humid conditions. This
will also usher in more warmer and humid conditions to the area on
Friday. Afternoon temperatures will return to around the 80 degree
mark for the region on Friday with relative humidity above 50
percent. At this time the severe weather threat for Friday remains
on the lower end, but will continue to monitor through subsequent
forecast updates.

As the weekend commences, another dryline is expected to set up over
central Texas. There does remain some model inconsistencies with
regards to the exact timing and location of thunderstorm activity,
thus confidence remains too low at this time to do more than
speculate on the matter of severe potential. That being said, the
SPC is hinting at a potential need for outlook products in the days
4-6 timeframe, thus the pattern for this weekend and into next week
will also bear watching through subsequent model runs.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  46  78  51 /  90  10   0   0
MLU  80  47  75  49 /  90  60   0   0
DEQ  77  39  74  46 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  80  44  75  51 /  90   0   0   0
ELD  78  42  75  47 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  83  47  77  54 /  70   0   0   0
GGG  83  45  77  51 /  80   0   0   0
LFK  83  48  80  54 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

08/50/05/26

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