Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1104 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Given current rainfall and cloud cover, this morning's update is
to adjust afternoon high temperatures. Most of our western zones
should reach the previously forecast high, but areas east of I-49
will likely be cooler.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Mostly cloudy and rain cooled lower 70s for much of our area this
morning except for portions of deep east and northeast TX where
mid to upper 70s reside as usual here lately. One more good chance
for some of those rain cooled starts tomorrow as the upper low
flares up again with daytime heating. Models have been consistent
on 09Z for some new development and right on time we are seeing
some pop corn showers right in the heart of our four state area.

We will see continued slow movement of convection with more
potential for locally heavy episodes with widespread 1 to 2 inch
totals and some areas in north LA along I-20 where we could once
again double or triple with a few bullseyes. The WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for today is indicating a Slight Risk for some
flash flooding, especially in those areas with more than 3 inches
yesterday. Both Texarkana and Monroe have new daily rainfall
records for the 9th. Likewise today has the same potential with
slow movement of activity again today. We can expect another wide
range of temperatures with more 90s in many locales, but many of
the cooler spots this morning will manage to keep the 80s range
for a nice change of pace. Our winds will vary around convection,
but prevail E/SE today and then back to E/NE for Thursday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

By Friday, we will continue to see a weakening trough/shear axis
drifting southward through our region which means one more day of
scattered convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor on Friday
before the shear axis pushes south and west of of our region. Held
onto slight chance pops across our southern third for Saturday only
but the main story beyond the end of the work week will be the
impacts of upper ridging that will expand eastward into the Southern
and Central Plains for the upcoming weekend and early next week,
resulting in warmer temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, stayed close to NBM numbers Thursday Night
through Friday which will be tapered slightly by increased cloud
cover/rain chances but look for the warming trend to really begin in
earnest by Sunday with highs reaching the upper 90s once again across
our western third. Upper 90s are likely across our western two thirds
by Monday with triple digit heat once again across at least our
western third by Tue into Wed of next week. /13/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

ArkLaTex terminals will see some IFR-MVFR this morning. The short
range models have been looking at some predawn development along
I-20 in LA with VCSH now for KSHV and VCTS by 14Z and prevailing
for KMLU around 15Z. Our SFC winds are light SE most everywhere
except for calm in the fog across S AR. Morning activity will be
slow to move, but additional areas with VCTS for mid afternoons
hours. Expecting more nocturnal overnight as the upper low moves
away from the four state area. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  73  91  74 /  70  50  60  20
MLU  85  72  88  72 /  80  40  70  20
DEQ  94  71  92  70 /  40  20  20  10
TXK  90  74  91  73 /  60  40  40  10
ELD  88  70  86  70 /  60  50  50  20
TYR  96  75  92  75 /  60  30  40  20
GGG  92  73  92  73 /  70  40  50  20
LFK  93  73  93  73 /  60  40  80  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
305 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
305 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible across most of the Four State Region today through this
evening. Some of these storms could produce strong wind gusts and
frequent cloud to ground lighting. Some flooding could occur with any
slow moving convection today through this evening, especially across
portions of Northern Louisiana into the southern half of Northeast
Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
the entire Four State Region on Thursday with the highest chances
likely near and south of the I-20 Corridor. Thunderstorm chances will
begin to taper off on Friday but especially this weekend into early
next week. Dangerous heat will likely return early next week, at
least across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and
portions of Southwest Arkansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

13