Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
918 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A seasonable Sunday is in store today, with mostly clear skies and
near normal temperatures. A low pressure system will push into the
Great Basin over the next couple of days, bringing cooler
temperatures, windier conditions, and a small chance for showers
Monday and Tuesday. Gusty west winds will occur on the desert
mountain slopes and into the deserts Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning, with peak gusts 50 to 60 mph on the desert
slopes. Cooler than normal conditions will persist all of this
week. There is the potential for a storm system to bring rain and
mountain snow to SoCal sometime late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 9 AM, satellite imagery showed patchy low clouds over the
coastal waters, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Some patchy
low clouds formed overnight, and even tried to make it into
Oceanside and Carlsbad, but were quickly pushed out to sea as weak
easterly drainage flow developed. Marine layer clouds should be
more widespread tonight into Monday as heights fall and onshore
flow increases today.

A sunny Sunday is in store for SoCal, with high temperatures
overall near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Enjoy
these seasonal temperatures while they last, as we are in for a
cool upcoming week.

The low pressure system currently situated over the Pacific
Northwest will begin to drop south into the Great Basin over the
next couple of days. This will bring cooler and windier conditions
to Southern California Monday and Tuesday. We may even see some
light showers Monday night into Tuesday, though little to no
accumulation is expected. Westerly winds will begin to increase
Monday afternoon over the mountains and deserts, and will be quite
strong over the desert mountain slopes. Peak gusts will range
from 30-40 mph in the deserts, and 50-60 mph on the desert
mountain slopes. Some higher gusts in excess of 60 mph will be
possible in the windy I-8 corridor and through and below the San
Gorgonio Pass. Wind Advisories will likely be issued today with
the afternoon forecast package.

Temperatures will drop by several degrees on Monday, with many
lower elevations only reaching daytime highs in the low 60s, and
higher mountain elevations staying in the 40s. Similar
temperatures will be observed on Tuesday. A brief shot of offshore
flow Tuesday night into Wednesday may warm up temperatures
slightly on Wednesday, but still remaining several degrees below
normal for this time of year.

Models and ensembles have been consistently showing a storm
setting up over the West Coast sometime towards the end of this
week, so confidence is growing in an unsettled pattern developing
over California. However, the timing and potential impact to
SoCal remains uncertain. EC ensembles have the storm moving a bit
quicker, arriving to SoCal Thursday night, while the GFS
ensembles have a slower onset, not arriving until Friday night or
early Saturday. Ensembles have converged quite a bit on the
potential rainfall amounts, with most ensembles members showing
light to moderate precipitation over SoCal, and hardly any members
showing higher and more bullish rainfall amounts. For now, count
on cooler temperatures late this week into next weekend, windier
conditions, and potentially some rain and mountain snow at times.
We will keep an eye on the trends and hopefully be able to nail
down some more details in the coming days.

Our pattern looks to remain unsettled beyond next weekend, as the
winter storm door remains open for low pressure systems to continue
to develop over the Pacific Northwest and drop south into
California.

&&

.AVIATION...
271630Z...Mostly clear skies through the afternoon. Low clouds and
localized fog expected tonight. Cloud coverage may be patchy
initially but will become more widespread into Mon AM. Bases may
initially come in around 700 ft MSL starting at 02Z Mon, but are
expected to rise to over 1000 ft MSL around 10Z Mon. Fog reducing
vis to 2-4SM will be mostly confined to the foothills and higher
coastal terrain Mon AM. Low confidence in complete clearing Mon,
especially along the coast. Any vis restrictions that develop should
improve by 17Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy fog and low clouds expected over the coastal waters into
Sunday morning. Monday evening into Tuesday, Gusty west-northwest
winds up to 30 kts and choppy seas over the outer coastal waters are
to be expected, with conditions hazardous for small craft. Strongest
winds and highest seas will be in the outer coastal waters near San
Clemente Island.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Connolly
AVIATION/MARINE...CO