Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
131 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A monsoonal weather pattern will continue through next week,
leading to a daily risk of thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoons over the mountains and deserts. Moisture levels will
be highest today with flash flooding possible over the mountains
and deserts. Little day to day temperature changes will occur
while humidity remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Several powerful thunderstorms have erupted over the mountains so
far today. These will probably drift into adjacent deserts late
this afternoon. Individual thunderstorms are capable of dropping 1
to 2 inches per hour. The Flood Watch remains through 8 pm. If
you have any reports of flash flooding or other damage from
storms, please report it via Twitter @NWSSanDiego. Skywarn
activation continues for San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino
Counties through 8 pm. Hot weather with temps exceeding 100
degrees will continue in the Inland Empire this afternoon,
supporting the heat advisory that expires at 8 pm. Temps will be
trimmed by only a couple degrees Sunday and for the coming week.
Moisture decreases for Sunday and Monday for fewer thunderstorms
during the afternoons in mountains and deserts. This looks to be
the pattern with little change through about Thursday, making for
a rather persistent forecast Sunday through Thursday. However,
we'll watch for a wildcard thunderstorm complex or some such
nocturnal thing that could materialize far out in the desert and
move into our region, such as last night's feature. These
adjustments may be needed on a day-to-day basis. On Friday and
Saturday, some guidance increases the moisture, and some of that
guidance increases it a lot. Other guidance maintains the status
quo. It's possible the precip chances edge westward to the coast
Friday and Saturday and the forecast precip amounts get larger.
The current forecast reflects a slight trend wetter and slightly
farther west of the mountains toward week's end. We've seen
guidance show a deep moisture surge by day 6 or 7 this pasts week,
and somehow subsequent model runs keep delaying it. We just have
to wait and see. In the meantime, we'll have similar weather,
though not quite as hot, for the next five days or so. Stay tuned
for any variations on this theme as they could be important.

&&

.AVIATION...
132030Z...Coast/Valleys...Multiple cloud layers with SCT 6000-8000
FT MSL and SCT-BKN 15,000-20,000 FT MSL are occurring across San
Diego County, and may spread into Orange County later this
afternoon. Low clouds may return to coastal areas after 03z Sun,
with bases near 1000 FT MSL. Any low clouds near the coast will
scatter out 15-17z Sun.

Mountains/Deserts...Widespread TSRA activity will continue through
01z Sun. Bases near 6,000-9,000 FT MSL and tops to 40,000 FT MSL.
Gusty and erratic winds with severe up/downdrafts, frequent
lightning and reduced vis of 2-4 SM, locally below 1 SM, in +RA and
BLDU. Otherwise, SCT-BKN AOA 20,000 FT MSL through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is requested through 8 pm today for San Diego,
Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties. Please use Twitter
@NWSSanDiego or the online spotter report form:
inws.ncep.noaa.gov/report

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

     Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...Schenk

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
116 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW PINE VALLEY       32.78N 116.55W
08/13/2022  M48 MPH          SAN DIEGO          CA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CTMSD CORTE MADERA (SDGE).

&&

AOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW CAMPO              32.60N 116.49W
08/13/2022  M46 MPH          SAN DIEGO          CA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CPOSD CAMPO (SDGE).
            THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST TO THE WEST.

&&

AOT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     FLOOD            2 W CAMPO               32.63N 116.50W
08/13/2022                   SAN DIEGO          CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CALIFORNIA STATE
            ROUTE 94.

&&

ES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
201 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

CAZ050-058-132145-
San Diego County Inland Valleys CA-San Diego County Mountains-
Including The Palomar And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland
National Forest CA-
201 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central San
Diego County through 245 PM PDT...

At 200 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
S7 - East Grade Rd, or 12 miles east of Valley Center, moving west at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warner Springs, Palomar Mountain, Hwy 79 Between Warner Springs And
Oak Grove, Hwy 79 Between Santa Ysabel And Warner Springs, Lake
Henshaw, Palomar Mountain State Park, S7 - East Grade Rd, Hwy 78
Between Ramona And Santa Ysabel, Hwy S2 Between Hwy 79 And Hwy 78, La
Jolla Indian Reservation, Santa Ysabel Indian Reservation, Santa
Ysabel and Los Coyotes Indian Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 11677 3336 11693 3336 11671 3325 11656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 070DEG 5KT 3325 11680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tardy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
217 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE FOREST FALLS       34.06N 116.89W
08/13/2022  M2.28 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION YUCC1 YUCAIPA RIDGE. 1.5
            INCHES IN 1 HOUR. THIS IS AT 9000 FEET ABOVE
            MILL CREEK.

&&

AOT