High Wind Watch 3, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
915 AM PST Sun Feb 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of warm and dry conditions with most locations a few
degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Further cooling is
expected Monday into Tuesday. Coolest day of the week will be
Tuesday when forecast high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
below average. Gusty west winds expected over the mountains,
deserts, and coastal waters Tuesday. A few light rain and mountain
snow showers expected as well. Dry conditions with a gradual
warming trend Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Key Points:
*Significantly cooler, chance of rain, and gusty west winds Tuesday.
*Dry with warmer conditions Wednesday through the end of the week.
*Another chance of precipitation early next week (low confidence in
details).

Clear skies across Southern California this morning are expected to
remain clear through the day. Areas of gusty east winds will
diminish this afternoon. Peak gusts this morning were near 35
mph. Locations that are not experiencing winds this morning are 10
to 15, locally 20 degrees cooler than 830 AM yesterday. High
temperatures today are expected to remain 15 to 20 degrees above
average away from the coast. The weakening offshore flow and
increasing onshore flow will result in cooling at the coast today.
Cooling is expected to spread further inland Monday, with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today west of the
mountains. The cool conditions will reach all the way to the
deserts by Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to
be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday.

Along with the cooler conditions, gusty winds and a chance of
showers are on tap for Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds will be
strongest over the mountain ridges, desert mountain slopes, and into
the deserts. Peak gusts will be 60 to 70 mph. Those higher gusts
near 70 mph will be focused to the San Diego and Riverside County
mountains. There is also a slight chance of rain and mountain
snow on Tuesday. Accumulations look mostly light, a tenth of an
inch or less west of the mountains, with no accumulation expected
in the desert. Given the inside track of the low pressure system,
winds will be the main impact of this system.

For Wednesday through the end of the week, the highly amplified
atmospheric wave pattern with the ridge off the coast and a trough
over the rockies, will ease. A period of northeasterly winds
expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Conditions will
gradually warm through the weekend. The various ensemble members
of the GFS/ECMWF show our next chance for measurable precip comes
early next week as shortwaves in NW flow aloft amplify south along
the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
131625Z...FEW AOA 25,000 FT MSL with unrestricted vis through tonight.

Iso E-NE wind gusts up to 25 kts will be possible along the mtns and
coastal slopes through 00z Mon. Localized weak up/downdrafts
over/west of mtns.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday
afternoon. West to northwest winds will strengthen Monday evening
through Tuesday with gusts potentially reaching 25 to 30 kts. The
winds will likely produce rough seas that will be hazardous to small
craft.

&&

.BEACHES...
Short-period wind swell is expected to produce periods of elevated
surf late Tuesday through Wednesday, mainly on west-facing beaches
of Orange and San Diego Counties. Increased risks for rip currents
will likely accompany the surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weaker easterly winds will continue along the foothills and below
passes this morning. Above average temperatures will continue today,
before conditions begin to cool Monday, with more significant
cooling Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity will be 5-10% this
afternoon. Humidity will begin to increase into Monday, with minimum
relative humidity values 10-20%. Further recovery is expected Monday
into Tuesday. Cooler conditions and gusty west winds expected
Tuesday with an increase in onshore flow. Strongest winds will be
over the mountains and into the deserts. Winds of 20-35 mph with
gusts 60-70 mph. There will also be a small chance for some light
precipitation Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Schenk