Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS San Diego, CA

731 
WGUS76 KSGX 142254
FFSSGX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
354 PM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

CAC073-150030-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220815T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Diego CA-
354 PM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM PDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

At 354 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 
1.5 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hwy 78 Between S2 And Borrego Springs Rd, Hwy 78 Between Banner 
  And S2, Borrego Springs, Hwy 78 Between Borrego Springs Rd And 
  Ocotillo Wells, northern Mount Laguna, Cuyamaca Rancho State Park, 
  Hwy S2 Between Shelter Valley And Agua Caliente, Hwy S22 Between 
  Ranchita And Borrego Springs, Hwy S2 Between Agua Caliente And 
  Canebrake, Hwy S1 Between Lake Cuyamaca And Mount Laguna, Fish 
  Creek Wash, Ranchita, Hwy S2 Between Hwy 79 And Hwy 78, Shelter 
  Valley, Agua Caliente and Banner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 11659 3325 11627 3300 11613 3289 11650

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Small

568 
WGUS76 KSGX 150026
FFSSGX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
526 PM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

CAC073-150036-
/O.EXP.KSGX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220815T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Diego CA-
526 PM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EAST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3319 11659 3325 11627 3300 11613 3289 11650

$$

Small

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
144 PM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon flow will continue this week, with isolated afternoon
thunderstorms for mainly the mountains through Thursday. Coastal
low clouds will increase some during the nights and mornings.
Monsoon moisture increases for Friday through the coming weekend,
extending better chances into deserts and inland valleys.
Temperatures and humidity will run a little above normal this
week, with some cooling toward the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Thunderstorms have developed on schedule in the mountains, and a
couple have grown pretty strong. Expect a few more to pop up and
dissipate this afternoon, before ending by 5-6 pm or so. Moisture
and instability in our atmosphere today have taken a big step
down from yesterday's high horse. Meanwhile, low clouds have grown
somewhat attached to San Diego. So while the monsoon takes a step
backward, it looks like the marine layer will take a step
forward, judging by the marine layer's cloud deck looking pretty
healthy off the coast. Expect areas of coastal low clouds a
little more prevalent for at least the next few nights and
mornings. Hot summer weather (a few degrees above average) will
continue this coming week, with some decrease toward next weekend.
There is no discernible change in our upper air pattern for the
next five days or so. And only a barely discernible change in
moisture and instability. Hence, we have a persistent forecast,
one that isn't changing noticeably from day to day through
Thursday. High resolution models aren't depicting any nocturnal
wave of storms like we had Friday night for the next several days.
There's a wave of deep moisture and energy in south Texas today
giving them lots of rain. Model guidance moves that wave westward
this week right along the Mexico-US border. As it approaches
SoCal around Friday, it brings additional monsoon moisture with
it...maybe! Latest 12Z guidance shows it either dying and
fizzling in Arizona, or taking a left turn into Sonora, Mexico.
Or, upcoming guidance could move it right into SoCal. Our forecast
reflects a tepid increase in moisture from this feature, with
greater chances of precip Friday through Sunday, including a
better chance in the inland valleys. Max temperatures seem to go
down for Friday through the weekend. Some hints that a West Coast
trough could amplify next week indicates another monsoon retreat
out of SoCal, if that were to materialize.

&&

.AVIATION...
141915Z...Coast/Valleys...FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15000 FT MSL can be
expected for much of today. SCT-BKN low clouds with bases between
700-1200 FT MSL will return Monday morning with moderate confidence
in CIGs occurring for the costal TAF sites, but low confidence in
onset time and exact duration. Any low clouds will scatter out by 15-
16z Mon.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly SCT clouds at/above 15000 FT MSL will
continue through this afternoon and evening. Sct TSRA will continue
to develop over the mountains through the afternoon, with the
deserts potentially seeing storm development after 20Z, and a 20%
chance of TSRA impacts at PSP and TRM. TS bases will be 6000-10000
FT MSL with tops to near 40000 FT MSL, along with strong
up/downdrafts. TSRA will end in most areas by 03Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...Adams