Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS San Diego, CA

375 
WGUS76 KSGX 052157
FFSSGX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
257 PM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022

CAC071-052207-
/O.EXP.KSGX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220805T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino CA-
257 PM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3421 11670 3429 11674 3441 11658 3437 11651
      3425 11647 3416 11652

$$

Connolly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
944 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered, mostly light showers will diminish from south to north
during the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop in the mountains in the afternoon and move into the
deserts, followed by drying for Saturday into early Sunday.
Another surge of moisture for late Sunday into Monday will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times for much of next
week with inland high temperatures not as hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Clouds and showers moved north through our region overnight and
this morning, dropping mostly one tenth inch or less across areas
north of San Diego County. The showers have moved into northern
San Bernardino County and we are shower free this hour. There
weren't any detectable thunderstorms with this wave. Only a few
patches of coastal low clouds were observed this morning.
The atmosphere is drying out today so the thunderstorm threat is
reduced compared to yesterday. Reduced to this afternoon and early
evening, and for mountains into adjacent deserts. The drying trend
continues through Saturday even into Sunday. The chance of tstorms
Saturday is too low to even forecast. On Sunday, the moisture
returns but rather slowly and late in the day, just enough for a
chance of precip in mountains. The models have backed off big time
on the moisture for Sunday and the easterly flow bringing it in.
That means the chances west of the mountains are very minimal
Sunday. Max temperatures inland should peak out this weekend with
more sunshine and drier air in place, also allowing for better
cooling at night. Moisture peaks Monday in depth and western
progression, and now even Tuesday looks almost as juicy. So rather
than Sunday-Monday being the wettest days in our forecast, it now
looks like Monday-Tuesday. This is a challenging pattern for
model guidance, and one that changes daily. Stay tuned for the
latest, because the forecast is almost sure to change even within
the two- to three-day forecast window. The marine layer will
continue quite marginalized by the monsoon flow, but may enjoy a
minor rebound over the weekend with less upper level moisture
getting in the way. Monday and Tuesday there appears to be enough
easterly flow, moisture and instability for some showers and
thunderstorms west of the mountains, with a few possibly hanging
around during the nights and mornings. Moisture begins to decrease
just a little Wednesday through the end of next week, but remains
enough for chances of at least afternoon thunderstorms in the
mountains, deserts and possibly valleys each day. It will feel
muggy everywhere next week, but without excessive heat because of
greater cloud coverage and humidity moderating temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
051545Z...Coast/Valleys...FEW low clouds near the coast this
morning, with bases 1000-1200 ft MSL and tops to 1500 ft MSL. CIG
impacts at TAF sites are unlikely. Patchy low clouds with similar
bases and tops returning to the coastal areas after 06Z Sat. CIG
impacts at coastal TAF sites possible 09Z-16Z Sat but timing is
uncertain. Otherwise, SCT-BKN at/above 12000 feet MSL through today.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN at/above 12000 ft MSL with unrestricted
VIS through today. SCT TSRA 18Z Fri-02Z Sat with bases 9000-10000 ft
MSL and tops to 40000 ft MSL. Expect strong up/downdrafts, local
surface wind gusts to 40 kt and brief vis restrictions in heavy rain
near TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
There is some risk of thunderstorms early next week over the coastal
waters, but confidence is low. Otherwise, no hazardous marine
weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...PG