Wind Advisory 4, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 333
AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Key Messages:

1. Wind Advisory Today - wind gusts to 45 mph at times.

2. Thunderstorms this morning and again tonight - some severe
possible.

3. Much warmer conditions expected Thursday into the weekend.

4. Showers and storms this weekend. Heavy rainfall possible.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis plots showed a zonal
upper level flow pattern across the central US with several
embedded, weak shortwaves moving through. The strongest wave was
currently across the Rockies. A strong low level jet was ongoing
this morning across Oklahoma and Kansas as both Norman, OK and
Wichita, KS measured 65kts at 850mb on their VAD Wind Profilers.
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed on the eastern
periphery of the low level jet/warm air advection/elevated CAPE zone
from the Ozarks down into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The
main limiting factor thus far for widespread activity is the low
level dry air in place across the area as southeast surface winds
are slow to advect any substantial moisture. The higher moisture
content remains across Texas and western Oklahoma. We have actually
had to trend down to the lower end of guidance on dewpoints this
morning.

However as we head through the morning, the low level jet will begin
to veer, with additional showers and storms developing across the
area as better lift and moisture arrive. Forecast MU capes around
500j/kg and 0-6km wind shear around 40kts may allow for a strong
storm or two this morning with hail to the size of pennies possible.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning will also be a concern.

The highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms this morning and
afternoon will generally be from Missouri Highway 13 and points
east. This is where the 00z HREF shows 1 to locally 1.75 inches of
rainfall in isolated locations. Other areas will likely see closer
to a quarter to three quarters of an inch. USGS stream flow data
shows that many areas are seeing above to much above normal stream
flows. Therefore some typical flood prone locations may see some
minor flooding today. Highest chances for this will be southeast of
Interstate 44.

Another item of concern in the non-thunderstorm wind gusts. A strong
surface low across Kansas continues to strengthen and as it moves
east today, along with the veering low level jet, we will see wind
gusts increase. BUFKIT momentum transfer analysis and NBM 4.1 wind
forecasts support a high probability of wind gusts in the 40-45mph
range across the northern half of the area today, especially those
higher elevations on the Ozark Plateau. Therefore we have issued a
Wind Advisory for today. Clouds will linger for most of the day
which will limit high temps. Highs will range from the upper 60s
near Joplin, to the upper 50s near Rolla.

By early this evening, a cold front will approach southeast Kansas
and western Missouri from the northwest around the same time as the
incoming shortwave trough. Model soundings across this area shows a
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms (HREF: mean SB cape
around 1000j/kg, 0-6km shear 40kts, 7-8C mid level lapse rates).
However the soundings are also showing a decent capping inversion
(50-100j/kg of convective inhibition). Therefore the main question
is if the shortwave and front will be enough to develop
thunderstorms. IF storms can form, then the main risk would be large
hail. Steep mid level lapse rates and favorable shear supports a
Large Hail Parameter between 4-8, which is in the favorable range
for storms to produce hail to the size of golf balls. Can not rule
even larger if instability is greater. The tornado threat is low,
generally due to the lack of stronger shear and increasingly long-
straight hodographs. The 00z HREF guidance supports the highest
chances for severe storms along and west of I-49 as instability
drops off rapidly as you get closer to Highway 65. Given the capping
inversion, thinking that just a few storms would be possible if the
cap breaks, typically after 5pm across southeast Kansas, then moving
southeast into western Missouri.

The front will move towards the Interstate 44 corridor after 9pm
and likely stall. There could be some showers and storms that
develop along the front tonight and into the overnight hours as a
weaker low level jet develops across Oklahoma and noses in. Given
the shear and instability, a few severe storms with large hail
could develop overnight, however confidence remains low in this
scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

On Thursday, the stalled front will begin lifting north. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible in the morning north of
Springfield, with generally dry weather for the rest of the day as
the front lifts into central Missouri. 850mb temps in the 12-14C
range supports highs well into the 70s however cloud cover could
knock these down a few degrees. Thunderstorms Thursday night look
to remain just northwest of the area, however will monitor for any
potential of them clipping the far northwest CWA.

A strong upper level trough moves into the Rockies on Friday with
deep southerly flow across our area. 850mb temps climb even
further into the 18-20C range, which supports highs closer to 80.
The area will remain capped off therefore no precip is expected.
Gusty south winds develop Friday and last into Saturday as a
strong pressure gradient develops across the central US. Latest
NBM 4.1 wind forecasts show a 80-90% chance of winds to at least
40mph again Saturday. ECMWF Shift of Tails tool is also
highlighting a large area of higher winds versus climatology. Therefore
will need to monitor for another Wind Advisory during this
period. Temps on Saturday have the potential to be the same or
slightly higher than Friday, depending on cloud cover and the
arrival of a cold front. Model ensembles currently differ on the
timing of the front. Of concern is the slow moving nature of the
front along with a continued southwesterly flow with plenty of
moisture. This could lead to several rounds of rain Saturday night
through Sunday, with heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Current
ensemble guidance shows 50-80% probabilities of greater than 2
inches of rainfall during this timeframe. The ECMWF Shift of Tails
Tool is also beginning to highlight an potential anomalous event
near the area. As far as severe weather goes, not seeing a strong
signal at this time as the positively tilted nature of the system
would preclude a widespread threat. The front may not clear the
area until early Monday. Precip and clouds will keep temps around
average.

Once the front clears the area, a slightly cooler and drier
stretch is then possible towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Look for ceilings to lower into MVFR/IFR status as the night
continues into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
also expected to develop over the TAF sites in the 08-10Z time
frame and continue through late Wednesday morning. Some isolated
shower development is already being observed north and west of
KJLN. Lowered visibilities will likely occur under the stronger
storms. A break in precipitation may occur during the afternoon
before another round of thunderstorms develops later Wednesday
evening. These storms may be strong to severe. South-southeasterly
winds gusting up to 30-35 knots at times will continue through
Wednesday evening. A cold front looks to push through and stall in
the region towards the end of the TAF period. LLWS will continue
over the TAF sites through most of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094.

KS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Langfeld

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
833 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
833 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

South-southeasterly winds will increase across the area into
tonight, with wind gusts up to 30 mph expected across the area
overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.

Scattered showers with some isolated embedded thunder will be
possible across the area into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Additional scattered storms and showers will develop across
western Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday morning and
will track east across the area during the morning and afternoon
hours. A few strong to severe storms with hail up to the size of
quarters will be possible.

Gusty southerly winds will occur across the area Wednesday with
gusts up to 30 to 40mph expected at times during the morning and
afternoon hours.

A cold front will move across the central Plains Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Additional storms are expected to develop
to the west of the area and spread east into the area later
Wednesday afternoon and the evening hours. The main severe risk
will generally be along and west of the I-49 corridor where large
hail and damaging winds will be possible with a low tornado risk.

The cold front will stall near the Missouri and Arkansas border
Wednesday night and lift back to the north through the area on
Thursday. A few strong storms will again be possible with hail
the main risk generally west of Highway 65 Wednesday night into
Thursday. Heavy rainfall and some localized minor flooding could
be possible.

Gusty winds will also be possible Friday and Saturday over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri. A cold front will move
into the area late this weekend into early next week and will
bring additional showers and storms to the area along with the
possibility of some heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Langfeld