Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
703 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Strong to severe storm potential tonight, along with excessive
rainfall and flooding potential.

2. More active weather during the Wed/Thu timeframe.

3. Warming back up by the late weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Showers continue to cover most of the CWA and have kept
temperatures generally in the 50s today. Dewpoints were ranging
from the mid to upper 50s over the southwest portion of the CWA.
Low pressure was still well to the west of the area centered over
southwest Kansas. A sharp dryline extended south of the low into
western OK with a warm front located from the low southeastward
into east central OK and central AR. Convection has fired during
the past hour near the triple point in western KS into western OK
and a tornado watch has been issued for most of southern KS and
northern OK, just shy of our CWA. Convective allowing models
continue to show these cells strengthening along the dryline with
supercells through the late afternoon, eventually congealing into
a QLCS as it pushes into our CWA this evening. The main tornadic
risk will be west and southwest of our area, but we could see some
QLCS spinups with significant 0-3km shear this evening as the low
level jet strengthens over the area during the 00z-03z timeframe.
Our main severe weather risk will be with damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph. PW values over the area have quickly increased today
into the 1.2-1.4 inch range. Any training storms could lead to
some flooding tonight over the area and we are currently in a
flood watch for areas generally along and south of U.S. 60 where 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected.

The bulk of the convection should shift east of the area prior to
12z Tue. Cloud cover is expected to continue much of the day on
Tuesday and combined with a cooler air mass in the region behind
the front will keep temperatures in the upper 50s in parts of
central MO to the upper 60s in parts of south central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

The next upper level wave will move into the rockies on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. We should remain dry during this time period,
but will start to see a good area of diffluence developing in the
central and southern plains in advance of the upper low, with
convection moving into the area during the day Wednesday. The bulk
of the instability should remain south of the area on Wednesday.
Strong to severe storms are expected to develop southwest of the
area during the afternoon and evening, eventually shifting
northeast into the area on Wednesday night. A low level jet
develops over the area on Wednesday night with the main low west
of the area. We should see a good chance of thunderstorms with a
heavy rain potential. The strong to severe thunderstorms with
heavy rain and potential excessive rain will continue into
Thursday as the low pressure system shifts east into the forecast
area. Most of the precipitation should exit the area by 12z Friday
or early Friday morning.

Upper level ridging will develop over the central U.S. over the
weekend as an upper level system begins to deepen over the
Rockies. Models are suggesting a blocking pattern eventually
setting up by early next week. A warming trend is expected to
develop over the weekend, with generally dry conditions from
Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a line of stronger
storms moving toward the area from the west. Strong to potentially
severe storms will be possible into early tonight. Behind those
storms, ceilings should be slow to improve until Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ088-090>096-101>105.

KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1005 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

MOZ094-095-102>104-030330-
Barry MO-Taney MO-Lawrence MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
1005 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Taney,
central Christian, Stone, Barry and southeastern Lawrence Counties
through 1030 PM CDT...

At 1005 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Verona to near Cassville to 6 miles north of
Grandview. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nixa...                           Ozark...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock Lake...                Roaring River State Park...
Table Rock State Park...          Aurora...
Hollister...                      Cassville...
Silver Dollar City...             Kimberling City...
Forsyth...                        Marionville...
Clever...                         Merriam Woods...
Crane...                          Shell Knob...
Kissee Mills...                   Billings...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9397 3662 9390 3705 9385 3708 9323
      3680 9307 3650 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 255DEG 41KT 3698 9378 3665 9382 3652 9363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1006 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

MOZ066-067-030345-
Vernon MO-St. Clair MO-
1006 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central St. Clair
and northeastern Vernon Counties through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Schell City, or 7 miles southeast of Rich Hill, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Appleton City...
Osceola...                        Lowry City...
Schell City...                    Roscoe...
Vista...                          Harwood...
Tiffin...                         Johnson City...
Taberville...                     Monegaw Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9363 3798 9362 3790 9432 3805 9433
      3805 9424 3802 9423 3805 9421 3804 9419
      3806 9413 3804 9411 3805 9410 3803 9406
      3821 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 255DEG 41KT 3802 9425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1018 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             THORNFIELD              36.71N 92.66W
05/02/2022  M1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED VIA MEDIA EMAIL WITH PICTURES
            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THORNFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1033 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

MOZ095-096-103-104-030430-
Douglas MO-Taney MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
1033 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Douglas,
Taney, southeastern Christian and Stone Counties through 1130 PM
CDT...

At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Galena to 6 miles north of Urbanette.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock Lake...                Table Rock State Park...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Hollister...
Silver Dollar City...             Kimberling City...
Forsyth...                        Merriam Woods...
Kissee Mills...                   Reeds Spring...
Highlandville...                  Rockaway Beach...
Bull Creek...                     Indian Point...
Branson West...                   Galena...
Taneyville...                     Mccord Bend...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3694 9349 3700 9276 3650 9278 3650 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 270DEG 38KT 3687 9345 3651 9351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSE WILLARD           37.23N 93.38W
05/02/2022  M44 MPH          GREENE             MO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSGF SPRINGFIELD ASOS.

&&

TEO