Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
241 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and strong/severe risk
continues this afternoon/early evening.

2. Warmer temperatures today into Saturday.

3. Windy conditions on Friday.

4. Excessive rainfall risk Saturday into Sunday along a slow
moving cold front.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

The warm front will continue to lift this afternoon into the
early evening hours, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area
as it places us in the warm sector. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be observed across the area, with some
thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds.

Models show an upper level ridging pattern beginning to build over
the region as a potent trough makes its way onshore over the
western CONUS. Despite mid level heights rising and some capping
shown by forecast soundings, latest CAM guidance shows convection
continuing along the front later this afternoon into this evening
with MLCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg possible.

With cloud cover over the area, afternoon highs are expected to
remain in the 60s to 70s across much of the area, with only a few
areas reaching the low 80s.

Later this evening into tonight, the front will lift out of the
forecast area, allowing for quieter weather heading into Friday.
With the entire CWA in the warm sector, can expect tonight's
overnight lows to be in the low to mid 60s.

Friday will be much warmer, with NBM percentiles showing the low
80s for much of the area. With the upper level trough over the
western CONUS continuing to propagate eastward, and the ridging
pattern continuing to build, a tightened pressure gradient will
lead to a windier day on Friday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

The trough will continue to push eastward, and a surface Low will
develop and begin lifting towards the Northern Plains Friday
evening, dragging an associated cold front along with it.

Saturday will be the beginning of a wet weekend as the cold front
begins slowly pushing towards the forecast area, remaining over
the CWA through much of Sunday/Sunday night before pushing out of
the area on Monday. Ample Gulf moisture and sufficient frontal
lifting will pave the way for showers and possible thunderstorms,
with training convection leading to an excessive rainfall
potential through the weekend. Ahead of the front Saturday
evening/night, there is a potential for thunderstorms to develop,
so will need to monitor any strong to severe storm chances over
the next day or two.

The WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) positions a
marginal risk over the CWA, with the experimental Day 4 ERO
showing a slight risk. Regarding potential rainfall amounts, NBM
48-hr probabilities of QPF >1 inch shows 50-70% across the
majority of the area, with probabilities of >2 inches dropping
down to 20-30%. As the weekend draws closer, will continue to
monitor flooding potential.

As this system pushes out of the area on Monday, a cooler air mass
will begin building into the region once again before highs
return to the upper 60s and 70s towards the middle of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Ceilings and visibilities will continue to rise as the fog from
early this morning has lifted, and current MVFR conditions at
KJLN and IFR at KBBG are expected to improve by this afternoon.
Some scattered showers will be possible today as a frontal passage
lifts north. Breezy south-southeast winds are expected today
through tomorrow, with gusts up to 20 kts possible today, and up
to 30 kts tomorrow. Otherwise, once the front lifts north of the
area this evening, dry conditions are expected for the remainder
of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
211 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
211 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms across the area are expected to continue
near a frontal boundary lifting through this afternoon/evening.
Some of the stronger storms have already, and may continue to
produce large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gusty winds up to 35 mph will also be possible Friday and
Saturday over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. A cold front
will move into the area this weekend into early next week and will
bring additional showers and storms to the area along with the
increasing potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
422 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             1 SW GOLDEN CITY        37.39N 94.10W
04/21/2022  E0.75 INCH       BARTON             MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL FROM DIME TO PENNY SIZE COVERING THE
            GROUND.

0158 PM     HAIL             MEINERT                 37.33N 93.99W
04/21/2022  E0.70 INCH       DADE               MO   PUBLIC

0200 PM     HAIL             2 E MEINERT             37.33N 93.95W
04/21/2022  E1.25 INCH       DADE               MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL FROM QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE WAS
            REPORTED.

0207 PM     HAIL             LOCKWOOD                37.39N 93.96W
04/21/2022  E0.70 INCH       DADE               MO   PUBLIC

0222 PM     HAIL             MAPLETON                38.02N 94.89W
04/21/2022  U1.25 INCH       BOURBON            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0231 PM     HAIL             3 NNW SHELDON           37.70N 94.31W
04/21/2022  E1.25 INCH       VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
            BETWEEN SHELDON AND MILO. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0240 PM     HAIL             2 ENE MARMATON          37.84N 94.78W
04/21/2022  E1.50 INCH       BOURBON            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING OF PING PONG BALL SIZE
            HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0240 PM     HAIL             3 E MARMATON            37.83N 94.78W
04/21/2022  E1.25 INCH       BOURBON            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0246 PM     HAIL             1 NNE NEVADA            37.86N 94.35W
04/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0249 PM     HAIL             FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.70W
04/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       BOURBON            KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN FORT SCOTT.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0329 PM     HAIL             3 SE MONTEVALLO         37.69N 94.07W
04/21/2022  E1.25 INCH       VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA MPING OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             OLYMPIA                 37.73N 94.03W
04/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       CEDAR              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            GROUND COVERED IN HAIL. BROKEN WINDSHIELDS
            AND HOUSE WINDOWS.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
04/21/2022  E1.75 INCH       POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             2 NE BOLIVAR            37.63N 93.38W
04/21/2022  U1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
04/21/2022  NAN INCH         POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF SKYLIGHTS AND SIDING BROKEN FROM
            HAIL.

&&

TITUS