Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Springfield, MO

557 
WWUS53 KSGF 060231
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
831 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOC141-060245-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220306T0245Z/
Morgan MO-
831 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...

At 831 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles west of High Point to 8 miles southwest of
Versailles, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles...                     Stover...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9262 3828 9308 3845 9307 3855 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 313DEG 33KT 3852 9273 3833 9293 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds today with south winds gusting 35 to 45 mph.

2. Marginal risk of strong to severe storms this evening.

3. Strong to severe storms with the potential of flooding as well
   Sunday evening into Sunday night.

4. Much colder to end the work week and begin the weekend.
   Potential of some winter weather.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

A 999mb surface low currently near the KS/MO/NE border and
associated shortwave energy aloft will shift to the northeast
tonight. With the tight pressure gradient, winds are gusting to
35-45 mph this afternoon and that will continue into this evening.

A cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight.
There is some potential for isolated strong to potentially severe
storms along the front over mainly northern portions of the area
this evening. Guidance suggests potential for 1,000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE early this evening that becomes elevated pretty
quickly around sunset. Effective shear looks to be 50-70 kts. The
potential is there for couple surface based storms to develop
around sunset, then quickly become elevated and focused in a
line of weaker storms along the front. If surface based storms can
develop, they could briefly be supercellular with mainly a large
hail (1") and damaging wind (60 mph) threat. A lower end
strong/severe threat will still exist if storms do not become
surface based, but the threat is lower in that condition. This
threat appears to be most likely over west-central Missouri.

Another shortwave will move into the southern plains Sunday,
leading to a surface low that moves across the southern CWA Sunday
evening. A warm front will move in from the south during the day,
with the low moving along that front in the evening. This will
lead to a risk of severe weather over mainly the southeastern half
of the CWA (along and SE of I-44) in the evening and early
overnight hours. There is still some uncertainty in the exact
track of the low and placement of the warm front, but looking at
SREF data suggests 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE along I-44 and 500-1,000
J/KG of MLCAPE south of I-44, with greater potential for surface
based convection at points farthest southeast. There is potential
for even higher instability over the far southeast with some
models suggesting around 1,500 J/kg there. With a 60+ kt low
level jet developing, shear and helicity will be substantial. Deep
layer shear of 60-80 kts and 0-1km helicity of 400+ m2/s2 are
currently expected south of I-44. This will allow for all modes
of severe weather. A big player that is still uncertain is how
much morning/afternoon convection will develop and how that will
impact evening severe chances.

Another hazard with Sunday evening/night convection is training
heavy rainfall. PWAT values of 1-1.5" will be near record high
values in the sounding climatology for SGF. Main area of concern
will be along and southeast of I-44 as seen in the WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook. Current forecast is for 1-2" of rain in that
area, with locally higher amounts. Did not issue a Flash Flood
Watch, but one may be needed if predictions stay in line.

As colder air moves in behind the system Sunday night, some light
snow or freezing drizzle may be possible for a short period of
time, but impacts would be minimal/nil given warm ground
temperatures and limited intensity and duration of precip.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Monday through Wednesday looks dry for the most part. Highs will
be mainly in the 40s Monday, with lows in the 20s Monday night.
Highs warm into the 50s by Wednesday, then the 60s Thursday.
Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday with some
potential for wintry weather Thursday night and Friday, but models
are all over the place with solutions for this time period so
confidence is very limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

VFR conditions are expected to return this evening into the early
night as the low clouds move out of the area. Winds will decrease
and turn northwesterly as the low pressure system to the north
and associated front pass through the area. Low-level wind shear
is possible tonight at the sites, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF.

Ceilings will lower again late night into Sunday morning as a warm
front lifts into the area, bringing the return of MVFR conditions.
Rain showers and a thunderstorm could develop toward the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield/Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
335 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-062145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
335 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

South wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will continue into this evening.
The strongest winds will occur over southeast Kansas into parts
of west central and southwest Missouri.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening
into early tonight. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe with large hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds
to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. Heavy rain will lead to a limited
flash flooding risk with this system, particularly for areas
along and southeast of Interstate 44.

Strong to severe storms will also be possible, especially Sunday
evening 6pm to midnight, again, mainly south of Interstate 44.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will be possible behind a cold
front by Thursday night and Friday next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             1 N NEVADA              37.86N 94.35W
03/05/2022  U0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
748 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOZ066-067-077-078-089-060230-
Vernon MO-Cedar MO-Barton MO-Dade MO-St. Clair MO-
748 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Barton, Cedar,
southwestern St. Clair, southeastern Vernon and northwestern Dade
Counties through 830 PM CST...

At 747 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from El Dorado Springs to 6 miles southeast of
Liberal. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie State Park...             Stockton State Park...
Stockton Lake...                  Lamar...
El Dorado Springs...              Stockton...
Golden City...                    Liberal...
Sheldon...                        Montevallo...
Jerico Springs...                 Lamar Heights...
Roscoe...                         Irwin...
Arcola...                         Umber View Heights...
Milford...                        Arnica...
Sylvania...                       Oakton...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 62 and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9363 3735 9408 3752 9461 3790 9406
      3798 9378 3783 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 325DEG 44KT 3786 9400 3749 9442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             DEERFIELD               37.84N 94.51W
03/05/2022  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN DEERFIELD.
            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
802 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOZ067-068-060230-
Hickory MO-St. Clair MO-
802 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Hickory and
eastern St. Clair Counties through 830 PM CST...

At 802 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Warsaw to 7 miles south
of Osceola. Movement was southeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Osceola...
Weaubleau...                      Wheatland...
Collins...                        Roscoe...
Vista...                          Gerster...
Quincy...                         Harper...
Elkton...                         Iconium...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9351 3820 9350 3808 9350 3807 9341
      3796 9335 3781 9344 3783 9363 3797 9381
      3821 9362 3821 9356 3822 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 319DEG 61KT 3815 9351 3795 9375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Burchfield