Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Key Messages:

1. Storms ahead of a cold front moving into southeast Kansas and
Missouri will begin to intensify 7am-10am as large scale lift
increases with an approaching upper trough resulting in weakening
capping.

2. Storms should grow upscale with the increased lift this morning.
Overall storm organization looks to be linear along the front
with embedded bows/qlcs segments embedded within the line today.

3. Best chances for severe storms will be in the enhanced-moderate
SPC outlook 10am-6pm (for our cwfa) in areas where moderate
instability and increased low level and deep layer vertical shear
combine. This will add to the potential for embedded
supercell/rotating updrafts within or ahead of the line in
discrete storms can develop. Damaging winds-tornadoes-large hail
will also be possible with these storms.

4. Localized flash flooding will be possible where storms can
train in a southwest-northeast fashion along the front with the
best chances late this morning and this afternoon.

4. Much cooler weather is expected behind the front. Could see
some frost tonight with lows in the 30s.

5. Unsettled and cool weather is expected this weekend. Cool
weather is expected to continue through early next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Gusty south winds have occurred overnight and will continue today
ahead of a storm system and cold front moving into the Midwest.
Not planning on a wind advisory, but could see some non-convective
gusts of around 35-40 mph this morning and early this afternoon.

Line of outflow dominate convection extends from just east of the
KC Metro into eastern/southeast KS at 220am. Seeing some 40-45 mph
gusts with the outflow wind shift line but convection has been
trailing the outflow quite a bit and is considered non-severe at
this time.

Near-term guidance indicates an uptick in convection over the next
2-4 hours over southeast KS/northeast OK as the nose of a strong
low level jet moves into the area. It looks to still be elevated
through 12z.

The outflow boundary now near KJLN to KRAW will shift southeast
this morning followed quickly by the synoptic cold front.
Guidance seems to focus reinvigorated convection later this
morning on the left over outflow boundary reinforced by the cold
front as it catches up to the prefrontal trough/outflow.

Approaching upper trough to our west will be preceded by
strengthening mid-upper level winds and height falls w/increasing
deep layer shear late this morning and afternoon. Lift coupled
with prefrontal moderate instability-mlcape values of
1500-2000j/kg and 45kt deep layer shear will support all modes of
severe storms. Guidance suggests a hybrid linear qlcs-supercell
mode will be possible given increasing vertical shear. Overall low
level winds will be a bit veered initially, but backing low level
winds with some guidance is indicated toward 18z-20z which may
increase a tornado risk, especially if discrete convection can
develop just ahead of the line.

Will have to watch flash flood potential as storms grow upscale
later this morning and this afternoon. A quick 2 inches of rain
will be possible which would cause some short term flooding
issues.

Storm press east of the area late this afternoon. Temperatures
will take quite a drop and are expect low to fall into the
low/mid 30s tonight. May have to take a look at a frost advisory
with a clear sky and diminishing winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Overall well below normal temperatures are expected during this
period.

Thursday: Dry/cool with high pressure building south into the
area early in the day. Sfc high shifts east of the area later in
the day.

Friday: Zonal flow low amplitude shortwave will support a sfc wave
moving into OK with a warm front setting up to our south over AR.
Will see increasing rain chances, maybe a rumble of thunder.

Weekend: A couple of waves will move across the southern tier of
the U.S. with some light rain possible favoring far southern MO.
Cold 1030mb sfc high over the Midwest will keep a chilly air mass
locked in over the region.

Monday-Tuesday: More cool weather. Pattern continues to favor
another Canadian sfc high moving into the Midwest during this
period. Coldest night might be Monday night with NBM guidance
indicating lows in the 30s.

Beyond Tuesday: General guidance trends indicate warming trend
during the mid/late week period next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Showers/tstms will occur ahead of a cold
front today. Will see MVFR/IFR at times, with IFR ceilings
expected trailing behind the cold front. Gusty winds will occur
with the front then diminish later in the period with high
pressure.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
652 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated frost risk.

DISCUSSION...

Storms over southwest Missouri early today are expected to
gradually intensify this morning with severe storms possible.
The overall best chances for severe storms will be in the
southern and eastern portion of the outlook area. Damaging winds
of over 60 mph, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorms.

Some areas will pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain and some
brief flash flooding will be possible where storms can train over
the same areas.

Strong non-thunderstorm winds will occur today with gusts of 30 to
40 mph possible

Colder air moving in tonight with high pressure and diminishing
winds will allow frost to develop, especially in low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated non-severe storms will be possible Friday. Much cooler
than normal weather is expected and some areas of nighttime frost
will be possible during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storms are intensifying now. Spotter activation will be needed
today.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

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