Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

Key Messages:

1. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today with heavy
rainfall.

2. Cooler tonight and Thursday with some showers Thursday.

3. Frost/Freeze potential Thursday night.

4. Warm-up for the weekend, with low end rain chances Friday night
and Saturday.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Early this morning, surface low pressure was located over far
southwestern Iowa, with a trailing cold front back through eastern
Kansas and into Oklahoma. Convection out ahead of this front
stretched from Iowa into north Texas. The convection that has made
into our western counties have been rather disorganized and remained
below severe limits. This in part in the lull in instability showing
up in the warm sector per SPC meso-analysis page and quite a bit of
dry air in the 06Z SGF special sounding. Still cannot rule out some
strong to severe storms during the pre-dawn hours as a well defined
shortwave trough over the Plains lifts across the area this morning
taking on a more negative tilt aided by a stout 60 knot low level
jet. The cold front will march through the area today and will see
falling temperatures, especially over southeast Kansas and western
Missouri, with the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms shifting
into the eastern counties later this morning and afternoon as
instability begins to increase once again ahead of the front and
there could be a window of strong to severe storms for those areas.
Rainfall amounts still look to be heaviest west of highway 65 prior
to 12Z and then shifting east after 12Z, with some 1 to 2 inch
amounts still quite possible.

The front and rainfall will move east of the area by tonight, with
some clearing likely across far southern Missouri and more clouds
over central Missouri. Lows tonight will drop down into the mid 30.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Thursday looks to be cloudy and cool as another spoke of energy
rotates through the area. This could spark a few very light showers
across the area. However, temperatures will be quite cool with highs
only in the middle and upper 40s along with a somewhat breezy west
to northwest winds. As this rotates out Thursday night, shortwave
ridging will take place with clear skies expected. Winds look to be
on the lighter side, and this combination will set the stage for
lows around 30, bringing frost and possibly a freeze potential to
the area by Friday morning, but temperatures will rebound back into
the lower 60s by afternoon.

Another fast moving shortwave in the flow will bring some low end
rain chances to the area Friday night and into Saturday, with quiet
and mild weather expected to end the weekend.

There are signals for another period of unsettled weather during the
beginning of next week. The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool is advertising
broad scale troughing over the western CONUS Monday into Tuesday.
This would bring the potential for increased rain chances to the
Missouri Ozarks. Confidence in this system is still on the low side,
with many model discrepancies and timing issues. Overall,
temperatures in this time frame look to remain seasonal with highs
in the low 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Showers and thunderstorms have overspread southern Missouri this
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. These will continue
much of the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon hours
before moving east of the terminals. Localized IFR conditions will
be possible in the stronger storms. As the cold front pushes
through, winds will swing around to the northwest and become
rather gusty again. In addition, lower stratus in the IFR range
will overspread the terminals in the wake of the front and
continue well into the evening hours. Some clearing will be
possible later this evening back into VFR conditions, but
confidence remains rather low on this occuring or the timing of
it.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
447 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
447 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Windy conditions are expected today ahead of a storm system.
  Southerly winds will gust at 30 to 40 mph at times, mainly over
  the eastern Ozarks.

  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the region
  today. There is a limited risk for flooding as rainfall amounts
  could range from 1 to 2 inches, with the highest amounts expected
  in areas west of highway 65.

  A few strong to severe storms will be possible early this morning
  over southwest Missouri. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph
  will be the main severe weather risk. We also can't rule out some
  hail to the size of quarters and an isolated tornado. This threat
  then will shift eastward into the eastern Ozarks from mid morning
  through the afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  There is the potential for some frost and freeze Thursday night
  into Friday morning.

  An unsettled weather pattern is expected to set up early next
  week, with the potential for some thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding