Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

Key Messages:

1) Isolated to scattered convection possible through today as a
cold front shifts through the forecast area.

2) Another storm complex expected Thursday night into Friday
morning.

3) Inserted precipitation chances for Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a baroclinic zone will be positioned across southern
Missouri.

4) Hot and humid Monday and Tuesday..

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

A storm complex was quickly approaching west central and central
Missouri this morning. This system will shift through the region
during the rest of the early morning hours, potentially bringing
some wind gusts and a brief period of heavy rain. There is a
limited risk for marginally severe wind gusts over central
Missouri, so we'll keep a close eye on those radar signals.

A synoptic cold front will shift southward through the forecast
area today, which could trigger some isolated to scattered
convection. Its tough to say how much and where with the existing
complex still pushing through. Many locations will remain dry
through today. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 70s to low
80s.

For tonight look for mostly dry conditions with overnight lows
cooling into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Thursday's day period looks dry with a cool - stable airmass in
place across the Ozarks. However, a sharp warm front will be
positioned just south into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Parcels will
begin to lift over this feature and force convection across
southern Missouri Thursday evening and through the overnight
period. It's possible that Thursday nights showers and
thunderstorms could be oriented from northwest to southeast for an
extended period of time, signaling some potential for training
thunderstorms. If this were to evolve, we may have to assess the
risk for flash flooding Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday's period should be mostly dry although precipitation
chances are not zero, and much will depend on how Thursday night's
convection evolves. What we do know is that a baroclinic zone
will still be either positioned directly over or somewhere near
the forecast area. This will set the stage for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday PM along the front.
We will need to monitor Saturday PM's period for severe weather as
the Ozarks will be positioned underneath the periphery of a
summer time high, which provides southern MO with sufficient deep
shear for storm organization.

Heading into early next work week, hot and humid weather is
expected as mid level heights increase over much of the southern
and central Plains. This pattern will also suppress rain chances
with afternoon highs potentially reaching the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR to start, but showers/thunderstorms will
move into the area during the 09z-12z time frame before exiting by
18z. Periods of mvfr/ifr ceilings and visibility will be possible,
but confidence in areal extent of storms is still relatively low.
Will monitor trends. Storms will shift southeast of the area late
in the period with vfr conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
837 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
837 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited Fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the
overnight with a localized risk for flooding, small hail and
gusty winds.

Storms now well west and northwest of the area over the Plains
will move east and southeast reaching west central Missouri and
southeast Kansas by 2 to 4 am. Additional storms may also develop
ahead of this approaching system late tonight in central and
southwest Missouri. One inch hail and winds gusts of 60 mph will
be possible, mostly after 2 am.

Patchy dense fog will also be possible from late this evening
into the overnight hours across south-central Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Weakening storms will push out of southern Missouri by mid-
morning. More scattered storms are then possible Wednesday
afternoon, especially across southern Missouri. There is a limited
risk for a strong to severe storm or two across south- central
Missouri in the afternoon if enough instability can develop.

Another complex of thunderstorms is becoming increasingly likely
from late Thursday night into Friday morning. A few of these
storms may be strong to severe with a continued threat for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

Afternoon heat indices in the middle 90s will be possible
starting early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight, mainly after 2 am.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA