Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
637 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Key Messages:

1. Storms moving into southeast KS and the Missouri Ozarks this
morning into early afternoon.

2. Additional showers and storms Friday into Saturday.

3. Much cooler Saturday and Sunday.

4. Wet weather next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Strong to severe storms that developed over southwest KS Wednesday
evening continue to move to the eastward along a warm front early
this morning. The leading edge of the storms was located near the
I-35 corridor from Ponca City to near Guthrie at 3 AM.

The latest CAMs output shows the storms reaching our southeast KS
counties by around 6 AM, spreading into southwest Missouri near
Springfield by around 8 AM, and continuing east-northeast into
central MO through early afternoon. LAPS data shows decent
instability early this morning with CAPE over 2000 j/kg, but also
seeing around 200 J/kg of convective inhibition. So expect storms
to remain rooted above the boundary layer early this morning, but
would not be surprised if we had some sporadic severe hail and
wind gusts.

Once the storms manage to become more surface-based during the late
morning and afternoon, they will likely be more intense. The latest
HRRR continues to show curved forecast hodographs which favor
rotating storms over central MO, along with around 3000 J/kg of
surface-based CAPE. Given these conditions, a tornado or two will be
possible with these storms in addition to large hail and severe
straight line winds. However the higher tornado probabilities
have shifted eastward with a focus along the lifting warm front
over eastern MO and southern IL during the afternoon.

Most storms are expected to move east of our central MO counties
by mid to late afternoon. We then expect dry conditions through
the evening and overnight hours. Overnight temperatures will fall
only into the upper 60s to lower 70s as the warm sector remains over
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

A cold front will move into the region beginning Friday but will
be slower to move eastward as the associated upper level trough
continues to dig to the west and southwest flow aloft sets up
parallel to the front. This will increase our precipitation and
flood potential as storms train over saturated areas. Severe storm
potential will remain over the region as the airmass ahead of the
front remains very unstable.

By late Saturday and early Sunday, the front will finally move
east of the area and allow the well advertised cooler and drier air
to spread into the region as high pressure drops southward out of
the northern Rockies.

By Monday we will begin to transition back to a wetter weather
pattern through Wednesday as the upper level trough to our west
digs southward into the four corners region and brings a warm
front northward from the Red River into the Ohio Valley. Long
range models are differing on the placement of the upper trough
from midweek on as the ECMWF wants to shift it eastward into the
central US by Wednesday while the GFS keeps the trough to our west
and develops a cutoff low over west Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Included tempo thunderstorms for JLN and SGF this morning as a
storm complex moves into the aerodromes from southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma. The leading edge of the storms are moving
northeast at about 30 knots, so the airports should only be
impacted for a few hours.

Also made a quick edit to include MVFR fog at BBG with low
temp/dewpoint spread and light winds.

From early afternoon through the rest of the forecast period, main
concern will be with low level wind shear developing after 03-04Z
at all airports. Local wind shear program shows potential for
50-60 knots at 2000 feet AGL after 9-10Z as a strong low level jet
sets up ahead of a deepening low pressure system.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
754 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201300-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
754 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...Strong to Severe Storms This Morning and Afternoon...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms across southwest Missouri early this
morning will move northeastward into central Missouri through this
morning and afternoon. Storm intensities are expected to
increase through the morning and afternoon as the storms move
into an area of greater instability. The strongest storms may be
capable of producing up to golf ball sized hail, wind gusts over
70 mph and potentially a tornado or two. The greatest risk will be
east of a line from Warsaw to Bolivar to Rogersville.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Storm chances will continue into Friday and Saturday as a slow
moving cold front moves over the Ozarks. There will be an
increased potential for flooding in addition to severe storms on
Friday and Saturday.

Another front will move northward from the Red River Valley into
the Ozarks from Monday through Wednesday and will bring more
storms to the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this morning and afternoon east
 of a line from Warsaw to Bolivar to Rogersville.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
833 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOZ069-080-081-191400-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Laclede MO-
833 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Dallas,
Laclede and southeastern Camden Counties through 900 AM CDT...

At 833 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Buffalo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon...                        Bennett Spring State Park...
Ha Ha Tonka State Park...         Camdenton...
Conway...                         Phillipsburg...
Stoutland...                      Bennett Springs...
Twin Bridges...                   Windyville...
Eldridge...                       Leadmine...
Pumpkin Center...                 Sleeper...
Decaturville...                   Plad...
Long Lane...                      Dry Knob...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 111 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3775 9241 3772 9241 3770 9236 3766 9233
      3748 9284 3778 9311 3804 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 235DEG 29KT 3772 9291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Melto

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     LIGHTNING        GOODHOPE                36.91N 92.81W
05/19/2022                   DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS LIGHTNING REPORT FROM
            GOODHOPE. HOUSE HIT BY LIGHTNING IN
            GOODHOPE. THE FIRE DEPARTMENT RESPONDED AND
            REPORTED SMOKE ONLY AND POSSIBLE PLACE OF
            STRIKE. HOUSE DID NOT CATCH FIRE.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
922 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOZ071-082-083-191445-
Dent MO-Phelps MO-Texas MO-
922 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Dent,
northern Texas and southwestern Phelps Counties through 945 AM CDT...

At 922 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Licking, or 9 miles north of Houston, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Licking...
Houston...                        Raymondville...
Edgar Springs...                  Plato...
Lenox...                          Montauk...
Jadwin...                         Beulah...
Darien...                         Bucyrus...
Hazelton...                       Success...
Anutt...                          Roby...
Lecoma...                         Prescott...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9152 3742 9164 3738 9164 3721 9216
      3748 9225 3750 9225 3761 9205 3760 9203
      3762 9203 3780 9169 3743 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 236DEG 49KT 3745 9203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Melto