River Flood Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1229 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our area
into Thursday night.

2. Flood risk increases tonight as excessive rainfall is possible
across the area.

3. A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon
across far southern Missouri. Damaging wind gusts and large hail
are the primary hazards.

4. Significant warmup is in the forecast for next week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

A deep upper-level disturbance has been making its way across the
High Plains this morning and afternoon which has helped draw the
surface warm front across Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle
northward. A southeasterly jet has advected moisture to fuel this
morning's and afternoon's precipitation. Most if not all of these
storms should remain sub- severe given the lack of deep
instability, but some small hail and rainfall rates around an inch
per hour are possible in the smallest storms. Southern Missouri
may see some relief in the precip late this afternoon and evening
before the low-level jet strengthens tonight and brings another
round of widespread showers and storms. The flood risk will be the
greatest tonight as an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are
possible over already- saturated areas. A marginal risk exists for
quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph as somewhat better
instability build over SW Missouri and SE Kansas.

Storms chances will bleed into Thursday morning as the warm front
continues to slowly lift northward. At this point, CAMs are in
considerable disagreement in the speed and positioning of the warm
front, and therefore, the severe threat. The latest guidance has
trended toward a more southward solution, keeping the warm front
south of the MO-AR border through mid-morning. Additionally,
lingering convection in the morning may keep the environment
worked over and suppress any significant instability. In this
scenario, sufficient surface heating and destabilization would
likely not be enough for discrete supercell development before the
linear MCS ahead of the trailing cold front dominates.
Nonetheless, deep shear and sufficient instability could result
in damaging winds and large hail. If discrete supercells are able
to form, an isolated tornado is possible across far SE Missouri.
Lingering showers and storms should exit east out of our area by
Thursday night. Models are even indicating that much of our CWA
may see a dry punch late afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed
May 4 2022

Friday will bring much-needed relief with drier conditions. Clouds
should begin to clear out throughout the afternoon and evening as
the surface low pushes northeastward out of our area. Upper-level
ridging looks to take hold for the weekend, making way for a
marked warming trend.

An upper-level blocking pattern will allow temperatures to warm
into the upper 80s by the early part of the work week. Current NBM
percentiles are notably crunched considering how far out the
forecast is. Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails indicate a
fairly good signal for a noteworthy warm event for southern
Missouri in early May. WPC Cluster Analysis indicates the next potential
for precipitation by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Widespread thunderstorms will continue through tonight and into
Thursday morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible during the day Thursday before another
round of more widespread showers and storms moves in Thursday
evening into Thursday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

A Flood Watch is in effect for much of our CWA into Thursday
afternoon as multiple rounds of rain will result in flooding
potential. WPC has issued a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall
across far SW Missouri and SE Kansas. The flood threat will
increase tonight as already-saturated areas will see another 1-2
inches of rainfall. A Flood Warning has been issued for the
Little Osage river near Horton, and the Marmaton in Nevada is
forecast to exceed flood stage Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055-066>069-077>081-
     088>096-101>105.

KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus
HYDROLOGY...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
803 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
803 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks through tonight. A strong
thunderstorm or two are capable of becoming severe. Hail up to
size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph are the
primary hazards within the strongest thunderstorms.

The flooding risk continues to increase the area given wet
antecedent conditions. Any locations that receive training or
repeated thunderstorms could receive significant flooding,
including flash flooding. Numerous county roads and state highways
could become flooded through late tonight and into Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Monday.

Widespread flooding of roads and low lying areas could be ongoing
heading into Thursday morning.

By Thursday afternoon, the risk for severe thunderstorms will
increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail are the primary hazards, but an isolated
tornado is possible across southeast Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

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