Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. A Red Flag Warning will end at 7 PM for areas northwest of a line
from Galena Missouri to Lake of the Ozarks.

2. Near-record warmth continues through Sunday.

3. Gusty south winds likely this weekend, with gusts over 40 mph
possible each afternoon.

4. Heavy rainfall possible Monday-Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Red Flag conditions continue northwest of a line from Galena
Missouri to Lake of the Ozarks this afternoon. Observations from
Laclede and Camden Counties show relative humidity below 20 percent.
Although winds have remained at or slightly below Red Flag
criteria, warm temperatures and very dry grasses and soils
combined with low RH will keep the enhanced fire threat over the
area for the next several hours.

Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon, which is within a few degrees of record highs for most
locations. More details are included in the climate section
below.

Dewpoint temperatures will increase overnight and Saturday as
southerly winds ahead of a developing storm system over the Plains
pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The increasing
moisture will help decrease fire danger for Saturday and Sunday,
but gusty south winds and warm temperatures will enhance fire
potential. Thus, limited to elevated fire potential will continue
through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

The main focus for next week will be precipitation chances
on Monday and Tuesday. Models trends continue to show increasing
precipitation chances and accumulation from early Monday through
late Tuesday as the developing storm system to our west taps into
tropical moisture from TS Roslyn. While the better surface
convergence occurs with the cold front passage on Monday
afternoon/evening, the eastward progress of the front will
decrease as the upper trough deepens and leads to pressure falls
over the Red River Valley. This will prolong our precipitation
chances and likely lead to several inches of rain in some
locations.

With very dry soils over the region we think flooding will be
isolated at best. Also, even though vertical wind shear will be
strong over the region, instability looks pretty limited over the
region, so severe potential is expected to remain low.

Rain is expected to end Tuesday evening as the upper low
shifts east into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build
southward from Canada and bring a return to cooler temperatures.
Another storm system may impact the region on Friday and into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, but gusty
winds and LLWS will occur. Expect southerly gusts generally up to
30-35 kts Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

The National Blend of Models (NBM) output is trending toward
temperatures continuing to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s each
afternoon through the weekend. We may also see overnight lows
approaching warm minimum temperature records.

Current records:
      10/22 High   10/22 High Min    10/23 High   10/23 High Min
SGF     85/2020          65/2020       88/1939       64/1934
JLN     86/1947          68/2012       85/1947       68/2012
UNO     86/1953          62/2012       84/1963       66/2001
VIH     86/1903          65/2012       82/1899       65/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
732 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
732 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

 Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire danger will continue through the evening across much
of the area. Dry fuels in response to the ongoing drought will
contribute to the increased fire danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Wednesday.

Gusty southerly winds are expected this weekend. Winds could gust
as high as 40 mph on Saturday and 45 mph on Sunday. The highest
gusts will be across far western Missouri and southeast Kansas,
creating elevated fire weather conditions with the potential for
rapid spread of wildfires.

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will be
possible from early Monday through Tuesday evening, with some
locations potentially receiving several inches of rainfall during
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus