Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Springfield, MO

321 
WWUS83 KSGF 201946
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022


KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-210100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220321T0100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Barton-Cedar-Jasper-
Dade-Newton-Lawrence-McDonald-Barry-
246 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 066, 067, 073, 077, 078, 088, 089, 093, 
094, 097, 101, 101, AND 102...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 073, 097, and 101.Fire 
  weather zones 066, 067, 077, 078, 088, 089, 093, 094, 101, and 
  102. 

* WIND...Wind gusts during the afternoon of 25 to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Humidity levels of 20 to 30 percent this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

228 
WWUS83 KSGF 210100
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
800 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-210200-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220321T0100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Barton-Cedar-Jasper-
Dade-Newton-Lawrence-McDonald-Barry-
800 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 066, 067, 073, 077, 078, 088, 089, 093, 094, 
097, 101, 101, AND 102...

Relative humidities will continue to increase as wind gusts slowly
subside across the region.

$$

Perez

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Key Messages:

1. Red Flag Warning for today in the western CWA.

2. Widespread rain and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Rain
chances continue into Wednesday night.

3. Cooler temperatures through Thursday, then a warming trend
begins.

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

A very dry air mass was in place over the region as noted by area
soundings. Upper level ridge axis over the high plains with
surface ridge east of the area. Winds are starting to come around
to a southerly direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Upper level ridge axis will shift over the area today and we'll
see winds increase over the plains and into our western CWA,
especially during the afternoon. We'll see afternoon RH values dip
into the low to mid 20s across the CWA, but with gusty winds in
the western CWA, some over 30 mph, we're seeing some areas of
significant fire weather conditions over our western 3 tiers of
counties during the afternoon. For this reason, will be issuing a
red flag warning today from 17z through 01z. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 70s with plenty of sunshine expected.

Upper level trough will continue to track east into the Rockies
tonight and begin to close off a low over New Mexico during the
overnight hours. Will start to see Gulf moisture advection into
the southern plains tonight as a good southerly low level jet
develops. Will remain dry over our area with mild temperatures in
the upper 40s to low 50s for tonights lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Heading into Monday, could see some some showers develop towards
midday over the western CWA with good upper divergence from the
southern plains into eastern Kansas and far western Missouri. This
shower activity will continue to spread east during the afternoon
and evening hours with the upper low lifting into Oklahoma and the
surface low into eastern KS. There may be enough instability for
some embedded thunderstorms. There is a heavy rain potential with
this activity with good moisture content and synoptic scale
lifting expected. As the low continues to lift northeast during
the overnight hours Monday night, some drier air will move in with
an upper level jet streak and the heaviest rain axis will be
shifted to the southeast of our area from the lower MS valley into
the TN/OH valley region. Another axis of heavier precipitation
will be possible on the back side of the low northwest of our CWA
and possibly into our northwest CWA.

The low will be slow to move out of the area as an omega block
sets up over the CONUS, so our precipitation chances will linger
into Wednesday night and possibly Thursday morning. The heaviest
rain though will occur late Monday into Tuesday and will represent
the best chance for any excessive rainfall. We are going fairly
widespread 1 inch amounts for this event with some locales over
west central MO around 2 inches when factoring the second round of
precipitation. Overall, doesn't look like a widespread flooding
potential, but some localized flooding could occur, especially in
favored areas that typically flood in the Ozarks.

Temperatures will remain mild despite the rain and cloud cover
through Tuesday with highs generally in the 60s, but behind the
low, much cooler air will keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for
Wednesday and Thursday.

After the low pulls east of the area, we are expecting a warming
trend starting Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports
overnight and into Sunday morning can expect fair weather VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours.

Skies will remain clear and visibilities will be unlimited.
Surface winds through the night will be light and variable, with
more of a southerly component at some point on Sunday.

Our next chances for active weather will occur Monday evening into
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a large
storm system approaches from the west.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
719 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
719 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Thursday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday,
mostly across areas west of Springfield.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday
night along with the potential of widespread heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer