Freeze Warning 3, NWS Springfield, MO

Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Key Messages:

1. Well below normal temperatures are expected early in the week
with some degree of a frost/freeze likely Monday night.

2. Warmer and breezy/windy with shower/thunderstorm chances chances
mid/late week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

A cloudy and chilly Easter Sunday continues. Widespread showers and
an occasional thunderstorm continue ahead of a shortwave over
eastern KS. The rain will shift east of the area early this evening.
Low clouds will linger before drier air begins to move in with
Canadian sfc high pressure moving south into the central Plains.

Guidance continues to support lows in the mid-upper 30s over the
forecast area with coldest readings north and northwest of SGF.
Winds and some degree of clouds should limit frost potential.

High pressure will move from the Plains into the Ozarks later Monday-
Monday night setting up frost/freeze potential. Have a Freeze Watch
for counties where temperatures widespread at or below 32F are
expected. Even outside the watch a frost is expected. Night shift
can further refine and update the frost/freeze headlines as needed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Tuesday-Wednesday: Sfc high pressure will start to move off to the
east Tuesday. Some midlevel moisture/lift west of the exiting sfc
high will result in some increasing clouds and maybe a sprinkle or
two during the day. Rain chances look to increase late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a zonal flow/low amplitude shortwave support a sfc
low moving through KS with modified Gulf moisture moving northward.
Increased lift/moisture and elevated instability will support
showers and a few thunderstorms. Severe storm chances look low late
Tuesday night/Wednesday, but could see an elevated hailer given the
vertical shear and mucape values >=500 j/kg on some progs.

Thursday-Sunday: A deep upper trough will move into the California
coast Thursday-Friday with a downstream ridge building over the
central CONUS. GFSENS/ECENS continue to support a sharp warmup
Thursday. The upper pattern becomes highly amplified by late in the
week with a deep western CONUS trough. Guidance is in relatively
good agreement in eventually developing a strong sfc low that will
move from the central High Plains to the upper Midwest or eastern
Dakotas by Saturday. A trailing cold front is expected to move
through (or into) the region at some point late Friday or Saturday.
By this time guidance overall starts to diverge on timing and
positions of the front. Ensembles linger precip chances for much of
the weekend with a stalling sfc front in the southwest flow aloft
with upper troughing lagging off to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

For the 06z TAFS, IFR stratus will continue overnight and into
part of Monday morning with stratus breaking up by mid to late
morning and eventually becoming VFR during the afternoon. Will see
wind gusts up to 22 kts from late morning through the afternoon as
a Canadian air mass moves into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     MOZ055>058-067>071-079>083-090>092-096>098.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
139 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190645-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
139 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Extreme frost and freeze risk.
  Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Widespread frost is expected across much of the area tonight
  into early Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze possible across
  potions of the eastern Missouri Ozarks.

  A dry air mass and gusty northerly winds will lead to the
  potential for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon,
  especially along and north of the I-44 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

  Thunderstorm chances will return to the area on Tuesday and
  occur at times through the rest of the week as a series of
  upper level disturbances track through the region. There will
  be breaks in the rain and storms between the systems.

  Gusty southerly winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected on
  Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise