Flood Watch 13, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Isolated gusty
downburst winds and localized flash flooding will be the main
hazards this afternoon/evening.

2. Continued unsettled weather through Tuesday and into Wednesday
as the front stalls over the region.

3. Slightly less hot the first half of the work week with cloud
cover and precipitation overhead.

4. Mostly dry forecast the second half of the week with more
uncertainty in the temperature forecast.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Looking at current water vapor imagery, we can observe weak
upper-level low pressure residing over the Missouri Bootheel
region and a shortwave trough over the Northern Plains that will
push eastwards into the Great Lakes region today. An associated
cold front currently located along a line from central Iowa to
far northwest Missouri to northern Kansas will dig southward into
the SGF forecast area later today and begin a period of unsettled
weather over the Missouri Ozarks.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may arrive as soon as
this morning over the northwestern portions of the CWA as the
front approaches. Greater convective coverage should materialize
this afternoon as moisture availability and instability increases.
Modeled RAP analysis suggests an environment marked with 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs in the 1.8-2" range overspreading the area
this afternoon and evening. Depending on the degree of diurnal
heating and subsequent steepness of low-level lapse rates, a few
areas of isolated gusty downburst winds under the strongest
updrafts cannot be ruled out. With weak effective bulk shear,
widespread severe weather and organized storm structures are not
expected. The more robust storm cells will be capable of heavy
rainfall, so we will also need to monitor a localized flash
flooding threat.

As cloud cover increases today, we will likely see temperatures
reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

As this frontal zone stalls near southern Missouri, multiple
rounds of precipitation will be possible tonight into Tuesday and
extending into Wednesday. A series of upper-level vorticity
maximums will also help to enhance lift during this time period.
Confidence is on the higher end that a widespread 0.25"-0.75" of
rainfall will be observed across most of the area through
Wednesday. With a moisture rich atmosphere overhead and relatively
weak mean flow and cloud-layer winds, training/slow-moving storms
may lead to isolated heavier rainfall amounts and a localized
flash flooding threat primarily along and south of the I-44
corridor. 00Z HREF ensemble probability matched-mean and ensemble
max products highlight the potential for isolated areas of 2+
inches through Wednesday.

Increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures in
the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid- and upper-
level flow will begin to push a drier airmass into the region
during the day Wednesday diminishing rain chances and keeping any
convection constrained near the Missouri-Arkansas border and
south.

By Thursday, surface high pressure pushes into the region with the
upper-level ridge building back over the Central Plains towards
the end of the week. This will allow for a drier second half of
the week. Winds will turn more southerly by the weekend with a
gradual warm-up looking more probable. There are some signals that
the Eastern Ozarks region may stay in more easterly surface flow
which could allow for slightly cooler temperatures east of Highway
65 (temps in the 80s) and warmer temperatures over southwestern
Missouri and southeastern Kansas (temps in the 90s) towards the
end of this work week and into this weekend. The latest Climate
Prediction Center outlook favors above-average temperatures and
below-average precipitation later this weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, outside of
any scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and continue through the evening. They will be very
scattered in nature and hard to pinpoint where they will occur.
Have carried VCTS and Prob30s for now however amendments are
possible. Gusty winds are likely under any thunderstorm. Winds
will remain out of the south to southwest through the period,
turning more northerly by the end of the TAF period and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM...Langfeld
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
538 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening. Localized excessive rainfall
and gusty downburst winds will be the main hazards with any of the
stronger storms. Heat indices will rise into the mid 90s to near
100 across the forecast area this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Continued unsettled weather is expected through Wednesday.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, however with a
moisture rich environment we will need to monitor heavy rainfall
and a subsequent localized flooding risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Langfeld

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
146 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N ALTON               36.71N 91.40W
08/08/2022                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OREGON COUNTY DISPATCH RECEIVED A REPORT OF
            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT ON OLD CANE
            BLUFF ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 19 JUST NORTH OF
            ALTON. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
150 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ALTON               36.71N 91.40W
08/08/2022                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            N ALTON TO THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. OREGON
            COUNTY DISPATCH RECEIVED A REPORT OF SEVERAL
            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT ON OLD CANE BLUFF
            ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 19 JUST NORTH OF ALTON.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CKR