Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Springfield, MO

278 
WGUS73 KSGF 022214
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
514 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

MOC009-109-209-022224-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0053.000000T0000Z-220902T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barry MO-Lawrence MO-Stone MO-
514 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHEASTERN BARRY, SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN STONE COUNTIES...

The flash flood warning has been replaced with an areal flood 
advisory which continues through 1115 pm.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM CDT Saturday for a 
portion of southwest Missouri.

LAT...LON 3697 9406 3698 9406 3715 9377 3710 9361
      3708 9361 3703 9361 3702 9361 3700 9361
      3699 9334 3682 9334 3671 9370 3684 9383

$$

Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Widespread showers and storms today may result in a localized
flooding risk over far southern MO, generally south of Hwy 60 and
near the Hwy 65 corridor.

2. Low rain chances this weekend into next week, but nothing
prolonged or highly impactful, are expected for the next seven
days.

3. Other than today's cooler temps, near average temps are
expected for the next seven days.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: An upper level low could
be seen on radar and satellite across northeast Oklahoma, just
north of Tulsa. This low was not moving very fast as the mean
steering flow is only about 15-20kts. While the 00Z KSGF sounding
only measured 1.33in of precipitable water, latest RAP analysis
shows that value likely has increased closer to 1.7in with values
near 2.0in near the upper low. An area of showers and
thunderstorms was occuring near and northeast of the low from
northeast Oklahoma, across southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Observed rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour have occurred
in localized areas. About 1000j/kg of elevated instability is
present as well which has contributed to isolated thunderstorms at
times.

Rainfall Expectations Today: As we head through the morning hours,
the upper low will likely continue to move closer to the far sw
corner of Missouri. The low then looks to track near or just
north of the Missouri-Arkansas border during the day. An area of
heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms is likely along this
track today. We have continued the trend of increasing precip
chances into the 80-90 percent range today south of I-44.

Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible today
where this low tracks. Latest high res ensemble guidance paints a
stripe of 2-4 inches of rainfall south of Highway 60. This is the
probability matched mean qpf for the next 24 hours with most of
that occurring during the day today and into this evening. This
could cause some flooding if the rates are high enough. We will
continue to monitor the latest model qpf trends and may even issue
a short fuse/targeted Flood Watch if confidence increases
further. Those getting a jump start on the Labor Day Weekend will
need to monitor water levels closely today and tonight, especially
south of Highway 60.

Areas east of Highway 65 will likely be dealing with showers and
thunderstorms into this evening as the low will be very slow to
move through the area. Areas near and east of Highway 63 may see
locally heavy rainfall tonight along the low track. Instability
will likely not be as high today given the significant cloud cover
however there will be enough for isolated lightning strikes.

Given the extensive clouds and precip expected today, we have
lowered high temperatures closer to the 25th percentile of NBM
guidance which places highs in the middle to upper 70s across most
of the area. Southeast Kansas and western Missouri may reach 80 if
late day clearing occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Expected Synoptic Pattern: Ensemble Cluster Analysis generally
supports the mid level high remaining across the western US
through the next week. This continues to leave our area
susceptible to shortwave energy that could linger just east of the
area or perhaps slide back west across the area. The upper low
today may linger close enough to impact the area through the
weekend, with additional waves dropping close by Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week. The National Blend of Models daily high
temp spreads are only about 5 degrees, which leads to high
confidence in temperatures remaining about average for early
September.

Labor Day Weekend Outlook: Shortwave energy just east of the area
will likely give areas east of Highway 65 a daily chance (20-40%)
for isolated showers and storms each day (Saturday- Sunday-
Monday). These would likely be diurnally driven and quite isolated
with most locations remaining dry. Near normal temps are likely.

Tuesday-middle of next week: We continue to see variance in the
ensemble data towards the middle of next week. Ensembles are
showing both location and timing issues with the upper level
energy across the northern US during this time. This leads to
lower confidence in the forecast. At this time near average
temperatures and daily low rain chances persist.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

KSGF and KBBG: Widespread rainfall will continue into this
evening before tapering off. Some thunder will be possible,
especially at KBBG. Fog is expected to develop tonight.

KJLN will be on the periphery of the area of rain, resulting in
vicinity showers for a couple more hours. Fog is expected to
develop tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ095-096-102>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
414 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
414 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely today across
the area. Areas along and south of Highway 60 may experience
localized excessive rainfall which could cause flooding. This same
area also has the highest chance for lightning strikes today.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger this evening and
tonight mainly for areas east of Highway 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low chance for daily, short lived afternoon showers
and thunderstorms from Saturday through Thursday. Widespread rain
and storms are not expected and plenty of dry time is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield