River Flood Warning 9, NWS Seattle, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1019 AM PST Thu Jan 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will stall over the area today and
tonight, bringing rain, heavy at times, and milder temperatures.
A trailing cold front will arrive on Friday with showers
decreasing. An upper ridge will bring mostly dry weather this
weekend. Weak fronts will bring a chance of rain at times the
first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...No major changes to be made
to the forecast. Previous discussion still stands.

Kristell

A warm front is currently pushing into the area. Temperatures
are starting to creep up and highs will eventually top out in the
mid 40s to lower 50s today. The warmer air should continue to
work its way north and east this morning. Fraser outflow will
weaken today with Western Whatcom County the last place to scour.

Heavy snow will continue in the Cascades today but snow levels
will be rising above 4000 feet so the passes should eventually
change over to rain. Easterly winds in the passes will keep the
weather snowy through this morning.

The warm front will stall over the area today, shift slightly
north this evening, then a cold front will push through the area
Friday morning. Heavy snow will continue over the Cascades above
4000 feet.

Rain will change to showers behind the front on Friday and become
largely confined to the mountains in the afternoon with a Puget
Sound Convergence Zone possible. With the front stalling over the
area today and tonight, numerous rivers could see flooding
starting tonight, especially over the south Sound and Southwest
Interior. See the hydrology section below for more details.

An upper ridge will build in from the west on Saturday. A weak
warm front coming over the top of the ridge will maintain a chance
of rain but overall it should be a much drier day. Snow levels
will dip to 500-1000 feet Saturday morning so the higher hills
might see some flakes but lowland accumulations are not expected
at this time. 16

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...An upper ridge will bring
a dry day on Sunday. The ridge will remain over the area for the
first part of next week but weaken, allowing a couple of weak
fronts to reach the area. This is reflected in the ensembles
which show a mix of dry and wet solutions. 16

&&

.AVIATION...West/Northwest flow today with a stalled warm front
over the region. Mainly IFR/MVFR cigs today with rain except
light snow or mixed precip in the vicinity of KBLI with Fraser
outflow winds. Locally heavy rain will reduce surface visibilities
to 1-3 miles at times. Increasing gusty southerly winds developing
across most of the area through tonight as warm front gradually
lifts northward.

KSEA...Moderate to occasionally heavy rain persisting through the
period under MVFR to IFR ceilings and surface vsbys reduced to
1-4 miles at times. Surface wind southerly 10-15 gusting 25 knots.

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&&

.MARINE...A warm front continues to lift northward this morning,
with small craft advisory conditions persisting across offshore and
inland waters through the day as southerly winds increase in the
wake of the front. Another system will approach and move across area
waters tonight, bringing a period of southerly gales offshore,
before a significant westerly push of wind spreads across area
waters Friday into Friday night. Widespread gales are expected, with
the potential for Storm Force conditions in the Central and Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca Friday afternoon. Winds will diminish Friday
night, remaining below advisory levels until Sunday night when the
next system approaches area waters.

Offshore, westerly swells will increase above 10 feet once again by
this afternoon, remaining above this threshold through early
Saturday morning. Seas will rise again early next week.

See the forecast section for information regarding coastal flooding
along the interior coast today.

Pullin

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Bellevue and Vicinity-
     Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish
     and King Counties-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
     Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley
     Area-Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-
     Tacoma Area.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for
     Admiralty Inlet Area-Bremerton and Vicinity-Everett and
     Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-San Juan County-Seattle and
     Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit
     County-Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Cascades of
     Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
     Counties.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST today for Cascades of
     Snohomish and King Counties.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday
     for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Storm Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
     Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
851 AM PST THU JAN 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     SNOW             SUDDEN VALLEY           48.72N 122.35W
01/06/2022  M5.8 INCH        WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
948 AM PST THU JAN 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE LA CONNER         46.93N 123.00W
01/06/2022  M2.95 INCH       Thurston           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1053 AM PST THU JAN 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N CENTRALIA           46.74N 122.96W
01/06/2022  M2.00 INCH       Lewis              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11 HOUR TOTAL

&&

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