Wind Chill Advisory 7, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Radford, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
149 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
As a cold front moves away from the region, gusty northwest winds
will usher in cold air tonight. High pressure will build into our
region Sunday. We gradually warm back up early next week as high
pressure shifts offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 149 PM EST Saturday...

Gusty winds and mountain snow showers and snow flurries tonight,
then high pressure for Sunday.

The low center and cold front will push east into the Atlantic ocean
this afternoon. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher
in cold air and generate mountain snow showers and snow flurries.
The western upslope locations will receive the most snow. The
highest snow totals will occur over western Greenbrier County as
much as 5-8 inches along the highest peaks of the Grayson Highlands
(Mt Rogers) and possibly along the Clinch Mountains. With lighter
amounts across rest of mountains. Northwest winds will remain gusty
this afternoon into tonight. Then, winds start to weaken to
10-15 mph overnight as high pressure works in from the
southwest.

Wind will push wind chills as low as zero to 10 below in the higher
elevations by evening, and single digits elsewhere. Will continue to
mention these in the winter weather products, but will likely have
to have a wind chill advisory for tonight for at least the mountains
of western Greenbrier south to the NC High Country, once we get past
the snow event. The upslope snow should dissipate this evening.
It will be very cold tonight with low temperatures from the single
digits above zero to lower teens in the mountains, to upper teens in
the piedmont. Some record lows may be reached. See climate section
below. High pressure builds into our area Sunday. Cold conditions
will remain, but winds will gradually lighten by early afternoon
across our region. High temperatures will vary from the mid 30s in
the northwest mountains to the upper 40s in the Piedmont.

Moderate confidence in the Near Term Forecast Period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 149 PM EST Saturday...

Temperatures trend milder to near seasonable conditions during this
portion of the forecast with rain return to southern parts of the
area Tuesday night.

A broad area of surface high pressure will be centered over the
Carolinas Sunday night into Tuesday. This position of the high will
allow for clockwise flow of air streaming into the area from the
south. This will initially mean only an increase in temperatures.
However, by the time we reach Tuesday into Tuesday night, an upper
low heading east through the Lower Mississippi Valley, will allow
for a more robust flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico into the
area. This flow will initially result in more cloud cover on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, the position of the upper low will be over MS/AL
and we will start to see some patchy light rain reaching roughly the
southern third of the area with robust cloud cover for the remainder
of the forecast area.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast to be around normal
on Tuesday and slightly above normal Wednesday.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

The biggest question in the long term portion of the forecast is
whether or not the area will experience yet another Friday into
Saturday cold front passage.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, we will be watching an upper low
track west to east across the Gulf Coast states, before turning
northeast across the coast of the Carolinas. There are subtle
differences in the timing and forecast track of this low. However,
there are enough similarities to have average confidence that the
north and northwest sections of the precipitation associated with
this system will cross our region. Coverage should be greatest
across the south and southeast sections, ongoing at daybreak
Wednesday, and concluding Thursday morning in the southeast. Other
than a few of the higher elevations of the New River Valley of
southwest Virginia seeing a small amount of snow early Wednesday
morning, rain is expected from this system Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

On Thursday, an upper level shortwave ridge will briefly build over
the region, before rapidly exiting to the east Thursday night. The
kicker to eject the ridge will be a deepening upper level low across
either the mid-Mississippi Valley or the western Great Lake region.
It will be the cold front associated with this low that is expected
to cross our area as early as Friday night per the GFS or around mid-
day Saturday per the Canadian solution or closer to Sunday morning
per the European solution. With a timing range of almost 48 hours,
confidence in the details of the forecast for Friday and Saturday is
low. Our forecast will continue to reflect a consensus of these
solutions with timing and associated weather closet to the Canadian
output.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to be
above normal Thursday and Friday, and start trending cooler on
Saturday.

Confidence in the Wednesday/Thursday portion of the forecast is
moderate and low for the Friday/Saturday portion.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1237 PM EST Saturday...

MVFR SCT to BKN clouds with IFR/LIFR snow showers will
continue in the western mountains this afternoon into
tonight. The taf site with the best chance for IFR condition is
KBLF. VFR conditions with a scattered afternoon snow flurries
are expected for the east.

The bigger story will be northwest winds which will gust in
excess of 30-40 kts at times this afternoon, before diminishing
to 15-20kts tonight with gusts until late evening.

VFR conditions return Sunday for all taf sites. winds will
become west to southwest around 10 mph Sunday.

Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...
VFR Sunday night through Tuesday with high pressure in control.
Moisture lifts north across the region on Wednesday with the
potential for Sub- VFR conditions.Drier air returns for
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Very cold temperatures for March arrive today and
lows Sunday morning could be close to records.

Sunday March 13th

Station       Record Low/Year     Forecast Low
Roanoke         15/1998               17
Lynchburg       11/1998               17
Danville        18/1998               19
Blacksburg       8/1998               13
Bluefield        6/1960               10

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
     032>035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ007-
     009>011-015-020.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ043>046.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001>003-018>020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ001-
     018.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ004.
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ042>044-507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...WP

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