Wind Advisory 5, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

929 
WWUS71 KRNK 071349
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
849 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

VAZ007-020-035-WVZ042-043-508-080200-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.220307T1500Z-220307T1900Z/
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.A.0001.220307T1900Z-220308T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.220307T1500Z-220308T0200Z/
Tazewell-Bath-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Hot Springs, Amherst, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
849 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Tazewell, Amherst, and Bath counties. In
  West Virginia, Western Greenbrier, Mercer, and Summers counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>019-022>024-032>034-043>047-058-059-
WVZ044-507-080200-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.220307T1500Z-220308T0200Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Marion, Bland,
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, 
Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
Keysville, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, and Alderson
849 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest, and west
  central Virginia, north central and northwest North Carolina, 
  and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

PW

965 
WWUS71 KRNK 080213
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
913 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>019-022>024-032>034-043>047-058-059-
WVZ044-507-080315-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220308T0200Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Danbury, 
Eden, Yanceyville, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Marion, Bland,
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, 
Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
Keysville, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, and Alderson
913 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire this evening as gusty
showers continue east our area. Gusts will remain between 20 to 
30 mph at times through the overnight into Tuesday morning as a 
cold front passes through. Locally higher gusts upwards of 35 mph 
remain possible along the highest ridges. Winds will diminish with
high pressure Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

VAZ007-020-035-WVZ042-043-508-080315-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220308T0200Z/
Tazewell-Bath-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Hot Springs, Amherst, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
913 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire this evening as gusty
showers continue east our area. Gusts will remain between 20 to 30
mph at times through the overnight into Tuesday morning as a cold
front passes through. Locally higher gusts upwards of 35 mph 
remain possible along the highest ridges. Winds will diminish with
high pressure Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
117 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach us from the west tonight. This front will
move across our region Monday into Monday night with scattered
showers and gusty winds. Cooler temperatures are expected for
Tuesday through the end of the week with unsettled weather
conditions as the frontal system lingers just to our southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 611 PM EST Sunday...

Threat of showers, possibly gusty winds early this evening
across the mountains of SE WV mainly north of Hinton. A sharp
gradient where it rains and doesn't will exist in this area with
best threat western Greenbrier and northwest. As the warm front
continues to the north tonight, the shower threat will diminish,
likely by midnight. Southwest flow will low temperatures about
20 degrees above normal in the upper 40s west to upper 50s
southeast, feeling more like mid May instead of early March.

Previous discussion...

A cold front approaches tonight, then moves through on Monday with
gusty winds and showers.

A strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will
continue this afternoon into tonight. This front will move through
our region Monday into Monday night.

The cold front in the Ohio valley will slowly move east tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the frontal
boundary this afternoon into tonight. Some of this convection may
move into western West Virginia and eastern Kentucky this afternoon,
but will weaken and dissipate as it attempt to cross the
Appalachians/Alleghanys this evening into tonight. Patchy low clouds
will redevelop overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be mild with
readings from around 50 degrees in the mountains to the upper 50s
to lower 60s in the Piedmont.

A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the mid MS Valley Monday
morning will move east-northeastward into the Northeast by mid
evening.  An attendant cold front will sweep across our region. Some
of the storms could contain damaging winds and locally heavy rain.
The SCAPE is rather low, but Shear is high. There is strong low to
mid level flow. SPC highlights the potential for a QLCS with a
marginal and slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of the Blue
Ridge on the Day 2 Convective Outlook. High temperatures will range
from the mid 60s in the northwest mountains to the lower 80s in the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday...

     Post-frontal cooldown, and more showers in the middle of the
week...

A cold front quickly exits the area overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Expect most precipitation to end shortly after midnight. A
small portion of far Western Greenbrier County in WV will receive
brief upslope snow showers Tuesday morning, likely before dawn when
temperatures are at their coldest. Accumulations will be minimal,
likely a dusting, as moisture will be limited, and the time period
when there is sufficient upslope forcing, moisture and below
freezing temperatures will be short.

During the day Tuesday the front will settle to our south, deep in
the Carolinas, while a surface high spreads from southern OH River
Valley into our area. Expect Tuesday to remain mild, but not nearly
as warm as we started this week. Cloud cover and being behind the
cold front should keep highs in the low 50s west of the Blue Ridge,
and upper 50s east.

Tuesday evening/night will see the return of rain, as a shortwave
moves along the boundary and nudges it back north, so rain will
spread from the south to the north in our CWA. This will carry on
throughout the day Wednesday until the shortwave makes its way east
of us, and the boundary slumps further south, late Wednesday night,
though the reprieve will not last long into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday...

Potentially potent front Friday, temperatures mostly stay above
normal...

Guidance is coming in to better agreement on the timing of a cold
front passing through the CWA. Thursday will grant a reprieve as
rain chances recede from most of the area as a frontal boundary
sinks south away from us.

A deep upper trough will drive the formation of a low pressure
system centered over the Great Lakes, and trailing a cold front all
the way down into the Gulf. This front will cross the area sometime
Friday, bringing showers and increased winds to the region into the
day Saturday. After this front passes, high pressure will settle
over the southern CONUS and should quiet things down for the rest of
the weekend.  Temperatures will fluctuate a bit with frontal
passages, rising a bit before they pass, and cooling a bit behind
them. On the whole, temperatures will be around or just above normal
for most of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Monday...

...Mostly VFR Through the Daytime...Becoming MVFR-IFR During
the Evening with a Frontal System and Line of Showers With Gusty
Winds...

Synopsis: Weak high pressure was evident across the region early
this morning. This will erode quickly this morning as southwest
flow aloft strengthens across the region in response to an
approaching upper trough and cold front. The associated line of
convection, mainly a narrow line of showers with gusty winds,
will traverse the area from west to east during the 21Z west to
02Z east time frame. Wind gusts of 35-40kts will be possible
with these showers. After the showers depart, look for IFR
ceilings west of the Blue Ridge to MVFR ceilings east of the
Blue Ridge overnight.

Ceilings...Periods of MVFR clouds will advect/develop across
much of the region after 09Z this morning and be SCT-BKN
throughout the morning and early afternoon, likely lifting into
the lower end of the MVFR range. In the 21Z-02Z time frame
ceilings will lower into the IFR range west of the Blue Ridge
and the MVFR range east of the Blue Ridge in a line of showers
with gusty winds and then persist into the overnight hours.

Visibilities...Mostly VFR outside of the brief window of rain
showers during the late afternoon/evening, when MVFR
visibilities will be possible.

Winds...Main problem during the TAF valid period. SSW-SW
throughout the day in advance of the showers/front at speeds of
10-20kts and gusty. The showers could bring a low-level jet down
to the surface with convective mixing with gusts to 45kts
possible for a brief period in the 21Z west to 01Z east time
frame. Afterwards, look for WSW-WNW winds at 10-20kts with gusts
25-30kts.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Ceilings,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Visibilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Speed, High Confidence in Wind
  Direction.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Gusty west to northwest winds and typical upslope MVFR-IFR
clouds will prevail west of the Blue Ridge early Tuesday. Winds
will decrease Tuesday afternoon. The front is expected to stall
across the Southeast U.S. through the latter half of the week
with overrunning precipitation likely during the later half of
the week, especially Wednesday. Tuesday will bring extensive
high clouds, especially south, but mostly VFR-MVFR at worst.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 640 PM EST Saturday...

No records broken today, but are possible Monday especially at
Lynchburg/Danville.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION   | 3/7 RECORD HIGH | YEAR SET
=====================================================================
Blacksburg |       76        |   2009
Bluefield  |       75        |   1921
Danville   |       82        |   1961
Lynchburg  |       79        |   1974
Roanoke    |       83        |   2009
---------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...DS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
216 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-071930-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
216 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-071930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
216 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday morning and early afternoon, southwest winds will be on the
increase across the area in advance of a cold front. Some gusts may
reach 35 to 45 mph, especially at the higher peaks and ridges. When
the front crosses Monday afternoon and evening, a line of heavy
showers is expected. Some of these showers may contain strong to
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Isolated thunderstorms
are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.