Wind Advisory 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

116 
WWUS71 KRNK 221536
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1036 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-
508-230000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, 
Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, 
Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, 
Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
1036 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North 
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central 
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Prepare for possible power outages due to damage to power lines. 

&&

$$

VFJ

514 
WWUS71 KRNK 221648
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1148 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-230100-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0004.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
1148 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-230100-
/O.EXB.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221223T2300Z/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Yadkinville, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
and Keysville
1148 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina 
  and central and south central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-
507-508-230100-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Sparta, Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
1148 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North 
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central 
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and
  power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Prepare for possible power outages due to damage to power lines.

&&

$$

VFJ

626 
WWUS71 KRNK 230114
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
814 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-230915-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0004.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
814 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-
507-508-230915-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221224T0300Z/
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Sparta, Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
814 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North 
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central 
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Prepare for possible power outages due to damage to power lines.

&&

$$

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-230915-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.221223T0800Z-221223T2300Z/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Yadkinville, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
and Keysville
814 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina 
  and central and south central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Butts

921 
WWUS71 KRNK 230844
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
344 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-231645-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
344 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-
507-508-231645-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Sparta, Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
344 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North 
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central 
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Prepare for possible power outages due to damage to power lines.

&&

$$

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-231645-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221223T2300Z/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Yadkinville, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
and Keysville
344 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina 
  and central and south central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

834 
WWUS71 KRNK 231600
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1100 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-240015-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
1100 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-
507-508-240015-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Sparta, Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
1100 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North 
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central 
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and
  power lines. Power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Prepare for possible power outages due to damage to power lines.

&&

$$

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-232300-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221223T2300Z/
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Yadkinville, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, 
and Keysville
1100 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina 
  and central and south central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines. Power outages are possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VFJ

349 
WWUS71 KRNK 232354
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-240100-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
654 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Reported wind speeds are under 50 mph, so the warning has been
cancelled. 


$$

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-
507-508-240100-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221224T0300Z/
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Sparta, Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, 
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, 
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
654 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Reported wind speeds are under 40 mph, so the advisory has been 
cancelled. 


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1038 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure off the Southeast U S Coast will move
northward across the Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday. This
will bring a wintry mix of precipitation into the region
overnight. The mix will become all rain mid to late morning
Thursday before ending. An arctic cold front will move across
the region Friday, which will result in rapidly falling
temperatures, strong winds, and a quick period of snow. Gusty
winds and very cold wind chill temperatures are expected to
continue into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1037 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Area radars show light rain (at least at the time I'm typing
these words) moving northward from North Carolina into the
Southside and eastern portions of the Mountain Empire. Overall,
the forecast looks to be on track from a messaging standpoint --
precipitation will continue to spread northward overnight thanks
to the presence of an area of low pressure off the Northeast
Florida coast. A wintry mix is still expected for a couple of
hours, with freezing rain still slated to be the dominant winter
weather type.

Of course, the devil is in the details. Warm advection in the
boundary layer is expected to strengthen overnight. This will
aid in strengthening the low-level warm nose overnight, which
will lead to the changeover to freezing rain. Some of the
higher elevations, especially west of the Blue Ridge, could see
a little bit of sleet or snow. Might even see some wet bulbing
in these areas given the lower dewpoints observed.

In addition, temperatures this evening don't appear to be as
cool as what we were forecasting. That said, I've made some
minor tweaks in (mainly) the hourly temperature and dewpoint
grids. I've also tweaked the timing on the hourly PoP grids to
better account for the arrival for the overnight round of
precipitation.

743 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

A thickening cloud cover has started working its way northward
in advance of an area of low pressure, which was located off the
Northeast Florida coast early this evening. Area radars and
surface observations indicate some light rain/drizzle across the
North Carolina Piedmont. It still looks like this will move into
our North Carolina counties and (possibly) the Southside/Mountain
Empire regions in Virginia before midnight.

Even with minor fluctuations in timing, precipitation is still
expected to overspread the forecast area overnight as the
surface low wanders northward toward the Mid-Atlantic. It still
looks like we'll see a couple of hour period of wintry mix
overnight before everything changes to a cold rain mid- to late
morning Thursday. Right now, the dominant precipitation type
overnight appears to be freezing rain, with some sleet possibly
mixing in across the higher elevations. Current weather grids
appear to handle this well, so I won't make any changes here
right now.

I will take a closer look at the 22/0000 UTC soundings and
latest high resolution model data later this evening. For the
time being, though, the overall forecast appears to be on track
at this time.

As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

 ...Wintry mix moves in tonight...

Some mid-level clouds have begun to form overhead, and cloud cover
will continue to thicken during the afternoon and leading to a
wintry mix of freezFor that matter, the overall forecast appears to be
on track at this time.ing rain and sleet tonight. A coastal low
centered off the Carolina coast currently, will drive
northward, bringing a round of precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic
starting tonight. It may start as rain moving in from the
south, but as temperatures fall overnight, there will be a
transition to freezing rain with some sleet mixing in for the
coldest areas in the mountains. Ice accumulation will be fairly
light, with a glaze to a tenth or so progged to accumulate in
areas west of the Blue Ridge. The wintry mix will return to rain
by mid-morning Thursday as temperatures rise again. As a dry
slot behind the coastal low and ahead of a deep upper trough
moves overhead, rain will taper off and a quiet period of
weather takes over briefly before an arctic cold front
approaches overnight Thursday night into Friday and plunges
temperatures far below freezing for Friday. With temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s, Thursday will be the warmest day for some
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Wednesday...

 Cold front to bring very cold temperatures and strong winds...

An impressive dip in the jet stream and a highly anomalous
upper trough/closed low over the Ohio Valley on Friday will
sustain rapid surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes.
Trailing this low will be a very strong cold front that will
pass across the area Friday morning, followed by Arctic air
with rapidly falling temperatures during the day on Friday.
Ahead of the front, expect some rainfall early Friday morning
before sunrise, with rain then quickly transitioning to snow as
cold air surges in. Areas that are most likely to see snow will
be the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge, with southeast
West Virginia and far southwest Virginia seeing the highest
chance of accumulating snow. Temperatures will begin
to fall rapidly in the far western areas before sunrise, leading
to an areawide possibility of a flash freeze. Any moisture on
the ground will freeze, and this flash freeze could cause travel
issues.

The front will reach the area by Friday morning, and then move
east and out of the area by Friday afternoon. Winds will be
notable behind the frontal passage with 35-45mph gusts likely along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Gusts up to 50mph gusts could
certainly be possible at the highest ridgetops. These strong
winds coupled with temperatures plunging into the teens and
single digits will lead to dangerously cold wind chills to as
much as -25F by Saturday morning in places such as Mount
Rogers, Burkes Garden, and western Greenbrier County. Elsewhere
from the Blue Ridge and west, wind chills ranging in the
vicinity of -10F to around -20F will be common. Areas east of
the Blue Ridge will be around -5F to 0F.

Light snowfall accumulations will be possible for the far
western mountains, with possibly a coating of snow as far east
as the I-81 corridor. Precipitation will likely be limited to west
of the Blue Ridge as upslope snow will follow behind the front
for the western slopes through Friday night, but should quickly
taper off.

Saturday morning will likely feature the coldest temperatures
this area has seen on Christmas Eve since the late 1980s.
Daytime highs will challenge lowest maximum records at nearly
all climate sites as well. Please refer to the Climate Section
of this discussion for temperature records. Winds will remain
breezy through Saturday, but will taper as the day progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...

 Cold, but slowly moderating temperatures with dry weather...

The upper level trough that brought the strong cold front
through the area will move off the east coast, leading to 500mb
flow becoming more zonal, and then eventually some ridging
building over the Mid Atlantic. Surface high pressure will
become situated over the eastern US for Christmas Day through
the middle of the week. This will bring a good several days of
dry weather, with no significant systems looking to impact the
region through this forecast period.

Cold temperatures will remain in place through the first of
next week. Temperatures will slowly start to moderate,
approaching seasonal normals by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
743 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Low pressure off the SE US coast will move NE across the Mid-
Atlantic through Thursday. As this occurs, expect conditions to
deteriorate from S-N by late evening as clouds and moisture
associated with this feature start to affect area terminals. Flight
categories will drop into MVFR after 22/0600 UTC, with further
reductions into IFR territory expected before 22/1200 UTC as PCPN
brings additional reductions in CIGs/VSBYs. A wintry mix, mostly
FZRA, should start impacting terminals (again, from S-N) from
22/0600-0900 UTC. PCPN should become RA mid-/late morning Thursday
before ending from SW to NE after 22/1800 UTC. Reduced flight
categories are expected to continue through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday night-Friday: Restrictions possible as PCPN returns
Thursday night in advance of arctic Cold front. The front is
forecast to move W-E across the area (mainly) 23/0600-1200 UTC.
Behind the front expect RA changing to SN, with wind gusts greater
than 30 kts. and LLWS possible.

Saturday-Sunday: Gusty winds remain possible, before subsiding
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 1245 PM EST Tuesday...

Saturday 12/24/2022
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    67 2015    -8 1983     14 1989     61 2015
KDAN    72 2015     9 1989     23 1989     64 2015
KLYH    70 1933     1 1983     26 1906     61 2015
KROA    72 1933     0 1989     26 1960     56 2015
KRNK    64 2015    -4 1989     17 1906     52 2015

Sunday 12/25/2022
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    66 2015   -13 1983      2 1983     58 2015
KDAN    74 2015     3 1983     28 1989     61 2015
KLYH    72 2021    -4 1983     13 1983     59 2015
KROA    69 2021    -4 1983     11 1983     55 2015
KRNK    68 1964    -8 1983     13 1983     51 2015

Monday 12/26/2022
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    68 1922    -3 1983     16 1977     56 2015
KDAN    75 1982     2 1983     18 1983     59 2015
KLYH    72 1922     1 1983     22 1914     58 1964
KROA    70 1964     3 1980     23 1985     56 1982
KRNK    65 2019    -8 1985      9 1983     51 2015

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035.
     Wind Chill Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ001>003-
     018-019.
     Wind Chill Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.
     Wind Chill Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DB
NEAR TERM...DB/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DB
CLIMATE...KK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
221915-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
208 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Watch.

Arctic air will arrive on Friday with strong winds. Flash freezing
of residual rain water onto roadway surfaces is likely. Accumulating
snow showers are likely across the mountains and foothills. Wind
chills Friday night into Sunday are expected to reach as low as -25F
at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-221915-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
208 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A light wintry mix of sleet and possibly icing from freezing rain is
expected late tonight into Thursday morning, which could result in a
light accumulation of ice. This may cause travel issues for the
Thursday morning commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Arctic air arrives Friday with gusty winds. Flash freezing of
residual rain water onto roadway surfaces is likely. Wind chills
Friday night into Sunday may reach as low as -5F at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.