Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will arrive by Monday, then dissipate.
Another front pushes in by Thursday. Expect a daily threat of
storms, with best chances Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered storms erupting over the piedmont in area of higher
instability along theta-e ridge. A few more showers/storms
popping over the mountains and expect coverage to best in the
east this afternoon, with convection dissipating by late
evening. Storms could become strong to severe with wet
microbursts the main threat in the piedmont with locally heavy
rain leading to poor drainage flooding.

Temperatures will drop into the 60s tonight with scattered
clouds. Appears fog should form in the valleys.

Sunday looks fairly dry in the piedmont as subsidence behind
departing shortwave occurs. Another trough/shortwave enter the
central Appalachians by mid afternoon and should more coverage
in the mountains than whats going on today. A few storms may
again become severe with isolated damaging winds.

Seasonably warm/hot depending on your definition of warm vs hot,
with highs mainly in the 80s.

Forecast confidence is average on coverage of storms through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 PM EDT Saturday...

 Storm chances increase into Tuesday...

An upper trough will dig east into the Mid Atlantic region through
Tuesday night. A surface cold front associated with the trough
approaches the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The combination
of lift and moisture created by southerly winds will generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. The best chances of rain
will be west of the Blue Ridge mountains. As the cold front
approaches, cloud cover will increase and lower. This will result in
cooler high temperatures Monday with readings from the mid 60s in
the northwest mountains to the mid to upper 80s in the Piedmont.
With the loss of solar heating convection will weaken Monday night.
Patches of low clouds and fog will develop Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the mid 60s in the
mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be in the southwest mountains. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from around 80 degrees in the west to near 90
degrees in the east.

Moderate Forecast Confidence During The Short Term Period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 PM EDT Saturday...

   Daily threat of storms through next week in a typical mid-July
pattern...

Aloft ridging will persists over the southwest CONUS with weak
troughing over the east. A shortwave from the Northern Plains will
rotate around the upper trough and cross north of the area on
Wednesday with a front extending south. This feature could enhance
showers and thunderstorm chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Diurnal
showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday, then models
are showing a brief dry/lower humidity spell to close out the week.
Drier air will push in the area on Friday and Saturday.

Ridging over the southwest begins to build eastward towards the end
of next week. Temperatures will climb to above normal by the weekend.

Moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast Period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR outside of any storms, with possible storms at
ROA/LYH/DAN 18-20z, with VCSH or VCTS elsewhere, with
cigs/vsbys as low as IFR if storms move over the airport.

Tonight we clear out somewhat so fog appears likely at LWB/BCB,
and cannot rule out any at ROA/LYH/DAN.

Sunday should be VFR through most of the day and at least til
18z.

Forecast confidence is average on storms, and above average on
VFR.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A moist southerly flow should increase during Sunday and into
early next week as a cold front approaches from the Ohio River
Valley.

Mainly VFR through the period. Exception will be afternoon and
evening MVFR thunderstorms, but areal coverage will peak Monday
as the cold front passes overhead. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated in coverage,
then increase Thursday ahead of next front.

Fog also possible at night into early mornings.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
218 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022

VAZ035-045>047-058-059-171830-
Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
218 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening.
The primary threat is damaging wind.

Heavy rainfall rates may produce localized flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The daily threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues
Sunday and Monday. Any of the stronger storms may produce heavy
rainfall rates that may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-043-044-WVZ042>044-
507-508-171830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
218 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Slow moving storms combined with heavy rainfall rates may produce
localized flooding this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The daily threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues
on Monday. Any of the stronger storms may produce heavy rainfall
rates that may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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