Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region this evening with rain
and thunderstorms. Dry weather with temperatures near normal are
expected Friday through Sunday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remain for this
afternoon. Already watching an ongoing cluster of storms over
southeast West Virginia that continue to move eastward.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected further east as
the afternoon progresses.

Strong surface heating is well underway with temperatures into
the 80s and lower 90s across most of Virginia, West Virginia,
and North Carolina. RAP analysis already indicating 1000 - 1500
J/kg MLCAPE along with increasing effective shear across the
entire region. Although the strongest shear/instability overlap
remains further north into portions of northern Virginia and
southern Pennsylvania, strong destabilization and modest shear
locally will still support clusters of storms which will have
the ability to produce strong damaging wind gusts and locally
large hail.

The main surface front is still to the west over eastern
portions of Kentucky and Ohio this afternoon. This front will
push through later tonight with potentially another broken line
of storms along it. Shower/thunderstorm activity begins to
dwindle by midnight as drier air from the northwest begins to
filter into the region. Still some uncertainty on the amount of
lingering cloud cover tonight, but with recent rainfall and
cooling temperatures, could definitely see some valley fog
Friday morning. Much drier and cooler airmass for Friday with
partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s/low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday...

   Expect near normal temperatures and very little chance of
   precipitation this weekend.

Thursday's cold front will be just south of the region on Friday.
The vast majority of the region is expected not to have any rain.
However, some lingering showers will be possible across portions of
the mountains and foothills of northwest North Carolina during
Friday morning.

High pressure will build over the area during the weekend bringing
seasonable temperatures back to the area. As the center of the high
starts to shift east of the region, there may be enough of a return
of moisture into the area to generate isolated showers over the
North Carolina mountains Sunday afternoon, and farther north into
parts of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia Sunday night.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EDT Thursday...

   Mild and unsettled weather expected through the period.

During this portion of the forecast, flow aloft will be almost zonal
each day. A series of shortwave troughs will ride along the flow,
into and across our region. This type of pattern will keep the
region on the mild side with more than simply diurnal-type showers
and storms. The challenge though is the variability in the guidance
in depicting the timing of each of these features. While not
represented equally among the guidance, there is some clustering
around the Tuesday afternoon and then Wednesday night as the times
currently with the best chances for the crossing of one of the
shortwave troughs.

The resultant forecast will be one that offers daily chances of
showers and storms with peaks in those probabilities around the
times mentioned above. With no push of colder air into the area,
each day should be above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas
through this afternoon and move east of the area Friday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are already developing across the
region and additional development can be expected through late
evening. Have narrowed down the most likely time of impact for
each local TAF site. Strong, gusty wind and intense rainfall
with MVFR/IFR visibility are likely with any of the stronger
storms.

The wind will remain southwest to west ahead of the front. The
wind direction turns to the northwest behind the front. Ceilings
over the mountains lower to MVFR right behind the front and
will remain low early Friday morning.

With dry air coming in behind the front and the upslope
weakening on Friday morning, the sky will begin to clear and
ceilings may lift before 12Z/8AM over the mountains. Depending
on the speed of the clearing and where it rains this afternoon
and evening, some locations may have a brief period of MVFR fog.

All TAF locations eventually go VFR mid-Friday morning.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Clouds will remain over North Carolina and southern Virginia
but ceilings will be VFR through Friday evening. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the upcoming weekend.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
mountains Sunday afternoon.

On Monday thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will be scattered
over the mountains and isolated in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
217 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-WVZ044-031830-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Monroe-
217 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-059-WVZ042-
043-507-508-031830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
217 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with the primary
threat of damaging wind. Localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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