Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a few severe storms
possible in the afternoon and evening. Additional showers and
storms are expected Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Prefrontal showers entered the mountains this morning and are now
moving east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. We should see an
uptick in intensity of storms as southerly flow and warm advection
has warmed temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Instabilities, deep layer shear, and mid-level lapses rates are
modest this afternoon, but can not rule out a few storms becoming
strong to severe, especially across the foothills and piedmont of
south-central Virginia and northern North Carolina. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #176 is now in effect until 900 PM. No
widespread hydro issues are expected due to dry antecedent
conditions and thirsty vegetation; however, high rainfall rates
from stronger storms could lead to localized flooding and
ponding on roadways.

Showers and thunderstorms will exit the piedmont this evening.
Another line of showers, associated with the actual cold front, may
move across the area overnight. These storms will be weaker and may
not move past the Blue Ridge. Dry high pressure will follow the
front for Monday. High temperatures Monday will range from the mid
to upper 70s across the mountains and low to mid 80s east of the
Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday
as a low pressure system passes across the region...

Expect generally dry conditions Monday night, perhaps isolated
showers toward dawn, as high pressure shifts east across New
England. By sunrise Tuesday, another low pressure system will be
progressing east up the Ohio River Valley, drawing a warm front
northward across the lower Mid-Atlantic, resulting in spotty
afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Better instability
for strong storms appears to be across the Piedmont, where
afternoon high temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s.
Elsewhere, look for highs in the mid/upper 70s.

Expect only spotty showers across the region Tuesday night as
the associated cold front approaches, with shower activity
ramping up Wednesday morning as the front passes east across the
central Appalachians. Again, will have to keep an eye out for a
few strong thunderstorms developing ahead of the front during
mainly the afternoon and early evening, with the front then
expected to clear to the east by sunset. Perhaps a few lingering
showers across the mountains to contend with Wednesday night,
but much of the area will then have a brief break in the rain
chances through dawn Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...

...A deep low pressure system will bring the potential for
widespread rain toward the end of the week...

High pressure will pass quickly across the Great Lakes to New
England on Thursday, and will eventually build southward across
the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night and settle against the eastern
face of the Appalachians, all of this ahead of yet another low
pressure system approaching from the Midwest. Weather forecast
model consensus is beginning to converge on Friday and Saturday
as the better chances for widespread rainfall associated with
this system, but it remains difficult at this point to get more
specific than that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area today.
Showers have already moved across southeastern West Virginia
(KLWB/KBLF) this morning, limiting severe potential this afternoon.
Stronger storms are possible across the foothills (KROA) and
piedmont of south-central Virginia and northern North Carolina
(KLYH/KDAN) this afternoon. MVFR to possible IFR visibilities are
likely with the stronger storms. Storms this afternoon may also
produce gusty winds. A cold front pushes through overnight with
westerly winds developing and becoming gusty late in the TAF
cycle/towards Monday morning.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Monday will be one of the dry days with VFR conditions expected by
late in the day.

Another front will cross through the area with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms and the potential for MVFR conditions on Tuesday,
especially in the mountains. The chance of showers and MVFR ceilings
will extend into Thursday. Timing and extent of rainfall and sub-VFR
conditions is much more questionable on Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS

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