Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
329 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like weather is expected through the remainder of
the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees above normal
through Sunday. Expect cooler to more seasonable temperatures
next week with a daily threat of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Unsettled Weather Through Sunday with Scattered Showers and
Storms...

Shortwave pushing north from the Carolinas will move overhead
this evening providing vertical lift for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Threat will continue until daytime heating comes
to an end. SBCAPES this afternoon have reached the 2500-3000
J/KG range. This should support some healthy thunderstorm
activity until loss of daytime heating. Risk for severe storms
is marginal.

Two areas of deep moist convergence have developed. The first
along the spine of the lower Blue Ridge into NC. The second
associated with the actual shortwave moving north from the
central Carolinas. All storms are generally following the mean
wind...220 degrees at 15-20 kts. Outflow from the storms over
the mountains may eventually link up with the storms moving
north from the Carolinas, congealing over our foothills and
piedmont this evening.

Convective allowing models (CAMS) show good coverage from
southern Blue Ridge and New River Valley east into the
Piedmont until sunset...so maintained greater than 50% chance
for measurable rainfall along and south of Highway 460...with
less coverage to the north. That said, strong heating which
also occurred north of 460, may provide CAPE to sustain
thunderstorm activity farther north...thunderstorm outflow
bringing more coverage to these areas too. So, although
confidence across the north is not as great attm, may need to
bump precip potential higher if radar trends support.

For the overnight, convection wanes with clearing skies
in the west after midnight, but low clouds may form in the
piedmont and where it rains. Patchy fog should also be expected
where it rains.

Unsettled weather is expected again for Sunday. A cold front
approaching from the west will provide forcing in a moist warm
environment to form thunderstorms and showers Sunday afternoon.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather again Sunday.

Temperatures through the remainder of the weekend are expected
to remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

A stubborn upper level ridge off the southeast coast will keep
the weather pattern from changing to much through the period. So
through the short-term part of the forecast, you can expected
cloudy skies and periods of rain into early next week.

A cold front will edge into the region Sunday evening with showers
across the mountains and scattered strong to severe storms remaining
east of the Blue Ridge. These storms will eventually fade out
through the evening. However the chance for light rain will continue
across the area into Tuesday night as surface high pressure wedges
south into the Carolinas while warm moist air aloft travels
northward. Rainfall amounts during the 60 hour period will range
from a half an inch for most and an inch or so across the North
Carolina Highlands and NW NC foothills.

Since we will have rain and a wedge in the area through much of the
period, day-time temperatures will run about 10F cooler than normal.
Overnights will remain muggy with readings in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Some changes to the weather is possible starting Wednesday as a
strong upper level system tracks across the central Plain states
into the mid-West. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge continues to
wobble off the southeast coast. With the Gulf wide-open, these two
systems will pump in warm moist air into the region. If the models
are correct, the wedge should erode on Wednesday, which should allow
most of us to see some sunshine. The wedge will definitely be gone
Thursday as low pressure advances east and a cold front approaches
the region. This low is expected to open into a negative-tilt trough
on Thursday, signaling a round of strong to severe storms passing
over the area in the afternoon and overnight. Following the front,
dry weather is expected to hang around into the weekend.

If the wedge breaks Wednesday, temperatures will warm back to normal
levels. On Thursday, no wedge, more sunshine and a southerly flow,
temperatures will once again be warmer than normal with most areas
being in the 80s. Temperatures fall back towards normal levels
behind the frontal passage Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Saturday...

Expect cloud buildups this afternoon with the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initiation is expected
along the Blue Ridge during the early afternoon. Additional
activity is expected to develop across the piedmont of the
Carolinas. Mean wind is 220 deg at 20 kt. Thunderstorm activity
from the mountains and coming up from the Carolina Piedmont are
expected to congeal over the VA/NC foothills and piedmont during
the mid/late afternoon... continuing until about sunset before
diminishing.

Thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front from
the Ohio Valley will approach the central Appalachians from the
west overnight. Outflow from this activity may reach WV
tonight with a chance for showers reaching KBLF/KLWB by daybreak
Sunday.

Winds today...mainly out of the south to southwest at
5-15kts...with higher gusts vcnty of thunderstorms.

Where it rains and with clearing, expect patchy fog and
potential for stratus tonight.

High confidence on cigs/vsbys and winds, and fair confidence on
storm coverage.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Showers and storms are expected again Sunday, with better
coverage and potential for something more organized as a cold
front moves into the region from the west. Prevailing
conditions will be VFR with well-above normal temperatures.
Areas of Sub-VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Monday
associated with the thunderstorms.

Models suggest the front may stall south of the region Monday.
If this occurs, then clouds and showers may linger into mid-week
with areas of sub-VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

Saturday May 21, 2022

Location      Forecast   Record    Record Year

Bluefield, WV    84        90        1941
Danville, VA     95        98        1941
Lynchburg, VA    94        96        1941
Roanoke, VA      93        97        1941
Blacksburg, VA   86        92        1941

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-221900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
255 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms with a few become strong to
severe. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few storms Sunday afternoon could become strong to severe.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-221900-
Tazewell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
255 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms with a few become strong to
severe. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS

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