Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
631 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warmth with higher humidity levels is expected
through the weekend. Temperatures will cool off slightly Monday
and Tuesday. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon, with more widespread rainfall expected Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM EDT Thursday...

...Severe storms still possible west of I-77 this evening...

Isolated strong storms are affecting western and southern parts
of the forecast area. Storms are not quite making it to severe
limits in our forecast area, likely based on tall skinny CAPE
profiles, a little bit of capping in the mid levels, and not
quite enough moisture available as compared to our west and
southwest. Much stronger storms/supercells are now nearing our
western counties, but will likely weaken the farther east they
go.

Still two to three more hours of daylight left for the storms to
work with before they begin to weaken. The surface front shifts
north through the forecast area overnight, and will keep a small
chance for thunderstorms accompanying it as it interacts with
the Blue Ridge.

As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight.

A warm front extends from the central Mid-Atlantic west across
southern KY into a mesoscale induce convective vortex (MCV)
center over Missouri. North of the warm front, the airmass was
dry and stable. South of the warm front, the airmass was moist
and quite unstable with SBCAPES of 3000+ j/KG across TN/KY. This
airmass will ignited clusters of thunderstorm activity along
the front, which will have the opportunity to move downstream
and into our forecast area during the overnight. Synoptic models
are poor at best with respect to precip generation. Convective
Allowing Models (CAMS) are OK, but still may not capture the
details/timing. For our forecast, we used the HREF which seems
to have the most realistic representation of where and when
showers/storms will develop with progression downstream along
the warm front. There were at least one or two members that
developed a bonafide MCS, those members having this feature move
along the warm front from KY into WV during the overnight.
Greatest threat if this were to occur would be damaging winds.

After tonight, the warm front is expected to lift north, leaving
the forecast area under building high pressure. With lack of any
synoptic or mesoscale forcing, any thunderstorm activity would
be isolated, diurnally driven, and mainly confined to the
mountains. Temperatures/dewpoints the next several days will
resemble summer...so get ready for the heat and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Any daytime thunderstorm activity should begin to subside after
sunset as we lose daytime heating, leading to a mostly dry
Friday night. Now well within southwest flow, overnight will
remain mild and humid with many locations remaining in the mid
to upper 60s overnight.

Expect another hot day for Saturday as ridging still remains
locked in place. Widespread upper 80s to mid 90s will be
common once again. A weak impulse underneath the upper-level
ridging will drift northward on Saturday which should provide a
bit more forcing for ascent, so expecting better coverage of
rain and afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. Best focus for
these will be along the southern Blue Ridge from northwest NC
and into southern VA, but not limited to these locations. Again,
should see storms dissipate by early Saturday night and another
mostly dry and very mild overnight is expected.

The front that was expected to cross the area on Sunday in
previous forecasts has slowed considerably when going through
various model guidance this afternoon. As a result, another hot
and humid day is likely. Clouds and an earlier start to
afternoon rain/storms may limit heating some, but still could
see low 90s in the east, 80s for the mountains. Rain and
isolated storms may remain into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Guidance is still trending slower with the passage of the next
front, with some guidance even stalling the front across our
region. This should allow for rain chances to continue into
Monday/Monday night. Some guidance is also pursuing the idea
that the front does not completely clear the area and we remain
locked in with showers through at least mid-week. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty beyond Monday, but kept the mention
of rain through the entire long term forecast period.

Regardless of the uncertainty with the rain, looks like much
cooler air is one the way for the first of next week.
Widespread 60s and 70s will be possible, especially if we begin
to see high pressure to the north wedge southward, which is also
a scenario that is being hinted at with guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Overall looking at mainly VFR through the period. Exception
within the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms which will be
scattered across the region this evening and into the overnight.
There is a vigorous mesoscale vorticity center that will move
across the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Thunderstorms will be
prolific underneath and ahead of this feature as it moves east
across KY, southern IN, OH, and WV. Debris clouds from this
activity will move downstream and into the central Mid-Atlantic.

West winds will be gusty at times until sunset...15 to
20kts. Higher gusts are likely withing the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday with
only isolated coverage, and limited to the mountains on Friday
and Saturday. Prevailing conditions will be VFR with well-above
normal temperatures. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Sunday-
Monday with rain and thunderstorms chances increasing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...

Friday May 20, 2022

Location       Forecast  Record    Record Year

Bluefield, WV    87        87        1996
Danville, VA     95        97        1996
Lynchburg, VA    95        96        1941
Roanoke, VA      94        98        1934
Blacksburg, VA   89        90        1934

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

VAZ019-020-024-035-046-047-WVZ507-508-201830-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Rockbridge-Amherst-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
219 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ010>014-016>018-022-023-032>034-043>045-058-
059-WVZ042>044-201830-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
219 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become severe
with damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-015-201830-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Grayson-
219 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be severe. Damaging
winds and hail are the primary threats. Localized flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

VAZ011-WVZ044-200045-
Giles VA-Monroe WV-
810 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Giles and
southwestern Monroe Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 810 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Narrows, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pearisburg...
Narrows...
Pembroke...
Peterstown...
Mountain Lake...
Rich Creek...
and Glen Lyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8044 3727 8086 3734 8087 3735 8085
      3736 8087 3740 8087 3741 8086 3754 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 255DEG 29KT 3735 8082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

VAZ014-022-200045-
Montgomery VA-Roanoke VA-
821 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Roanoke and central Montgomery Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 821 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blacksburg, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blacksburg...
Christiansburg...
Bent Mountain...
Shawsville...
Glenvar...
Mc Donalds Mill...
and Elliston-Lafayette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8012 3713 8011 3711 8015 3714 8049
      3729 8048 3731 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 270DEG 33KT 3722 8041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PW

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