Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
302 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to move south and towards the southern
Appalachians this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue for the region until the front comes through Thursday.
Cooler and drier weather will follow the for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

...Scattered storms will have heavy rainfall, and may produce
isolated damaging winds...front moves through Thursday...

Convection has blossomed across the area today, with some strong
to severe storms, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Several broken
lines of storms stretch from southern PA to VA and WV, and will
continue to push east. Behind these storms more diurnally and
orographically forced precipitation will continue into the
evening. We have a good amount of instability but weak overall
forcing for ascent and light winds throughout the layer. Thus
storms may pulse and be severe briefly before raining out. Heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding remains the main concern, and
a Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight for about the
northern half of the forecast area. These storms still have
intense lightning and the chance for isolated damaging winds.

The probability of precipitation lowers in the mountains after
sunset until the front gets closer late tonight. In the
Piedmont,little chance of rain is expected once the afternoon
and evening storms come to an end.

The front pushes through overnight and into tomorrow, and
should be south of our area by the late afternoon hours. While
the front traverses the area, widespread showers and scattered
thunder are expected with heavy rainfall. Behind the front drier
air arrives and we should feel some relief by evening. Lows
tonight will be in the low 60s to low 70s, with highs tomorrow a
little cooler than today in cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sunshine and lower humidities for Friday into Saturday.

A cold front will continue to progress southward into Thursday
night. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the early
Thursday evening. Any convection will dissipate as drier air
moves into the region behind the front. Low temperatures
Thursday night will range in the upper 50s in the mountains to
the mid 60s in the Piedmont.

High pressure will build south into our region Friday into Friday
night. cooler and drier air will move south as the high builds.
Temperatures will be around or slightly below normal Friday. High
temperatures Friday will vary from the upper 60s in the northwest
mountains to the lower 80s in the Piedmont. Under Mostly clear
Skies, low temperatures Friday night will be comfortable with
readings from the upper 50s in the west to the upper 60s in the
east. Saturday will feature sunshine with lower dew points. High
temperatures Saturday will warm into the upper 60s in the western
mountains to the lower 80s in the Piedmont. Lows Saturday night will
generally be in the 50s.

High confidence in the Short Term Period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storm chances return early next week.

High pressure controls our weather Sunday into Monday. A cold front
approaches Monday night and moves across our area Tuesday. An upper
trough will dig across our region Tuesday into Wednesday. A few weak
embedded disturbances will rotate southeast across the area. These
will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal into next
week with persistent troughing in the east.

Moderate confidence in the Long Term Period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered TSRA continues through this evening before beginning
to dissipate after dark. Rainfall rates will be very heavy with
some of these storms with IFR visibility.

However the probability of precipitation does increase once a
front moves to the WV/VA border late tonight. May have VCSH in
the KLWB and KBLF TAFs most of the night. In the Piedmont
little chance of rain is expected once the evening storms move
through.

IFR clouds come in from the northwest overnight with areas of
MVFR showers and fogs and isolated thunderstorms. Have KLWB,
KBCB and KBLF lowering after 06Z/2AM.

The front moves through the remainder of the area by about
15-18Z on Thursday, and TSRA or VCTS and IFR to MVFR conditions
are expected for all terminals as this occurs, coming to an end
in the afternoon.

Average confidence in this forecast.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A secondary front will push through the area Thursday night
into Friday leading in VFR conditions. VFR conditions are
expected Saturday. A low probability of showers return to the
mountains Sunday, but should remain VFR most of the time.
Diurnally driven showers and storms return on Monday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Thunderstorms will be more numerous and have more areal coverage
through this evening, increasing the chance that a location that
had heavy rain in the past few days will get more. In addition,
intense rainfall rates are likely with any of the stronger
storms. Urban and developed areas will be more susceptible to
the threat of flooding with these heavy rates. Precipitable
water values will be hovering around 2.0 inches through tonight
east of the Blue Ridge and with the high freezing level, the
result will be brief periods of torrential rainfall. A Flood
Watch for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect until midnight.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-009>014-
     018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...SH
HYDROLOGY...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-111845-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-058-059-111845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Halifax-Charlotte-
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Very heavy rainfall rates may result in localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ035-046-047-111845-
Amherst-Appomattox-Buckingham-
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ034-045-111845-
Bedford-Campbell-
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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