Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
202 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through
Wednesday with weak high pressure over the region and a daily
chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front comes through
the area on Wednesday night leading in a substantially less
humid and noticeably cooler air mass. Friday and Saturday will
be dry with below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

 Isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening,
with another round tomorrow afternoon...

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
across the area, with most of the activity along and west of the
Blue Ridge and in the Piedmont. These areas have received plenty
of heating already today, leading to an increase in instability.
Combining that with the abundant ambient moisture in the
atmosphere, as observed with the precipitable water over 1.5
inches in the 12Z sounding from RNK, mean any of the showers and
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating. Fog will likely develop for a
few hours Tuesday morning, mainly in the valleys, but also
possible in other areas that receive rain today.

A now familiar set up is expected Tuesday, with clearer skies in
the morning, and showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be around normal
for tomorrow.

Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

   Stormier Wednesday....

Front and shortwave will allow for better coverage of storms
Wednesday afternoon/evening. At this time, appears severe threat is
limited as shear is weak, but cannot rule out a few stronger storms,
with wet microbursts due to loading in this highly moist airmass.
Will likely be dealing with a few isolated hydro issues as storms
may train over the same area. Will continue to mention this in the
HWO.

Storms will fade somewhat late Wed night but front does not really
clear the area until Thursday.

Temperatures remain warm at night and highs will be seasonably very
warm to hot.

Forecast confidence is above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Monday...

  Less Humid By The Weekend With A Few Showers Sunday-Monday...

Pattern changes to a trough building southward into the mid-Atlantic
by Thursday evening with front sinking south away from our area.
Will likely see showers/storms lingering Thursday especially along
and south of U.S. 58 Thursday then will see lower humidity and
cooler temperatures across the region Friday-Sunday, and even Monday
will likely stay at or below normal.

The forecast Sunday-Monday from the synoptic models shows a
shortwave and potential southeast flow allowing for showers/storms
but not going anything higher than a chance at the moment.

Forecast confidence is increasing for drier/lower humidity and
cooler weather this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are already
developing across the area, with the highest coverage along the
Southern Blue Ridge and in the New River Valley, as well as in
the Piedmont. This activity is expected to continue through
Monday afternoon into the evening, but will decrease after
sunset and the loss of daytime heating. The abundant moisture in
the atmosphere, as indicated by precipitable water values near
1.5 inches, mean that heavy rain is possible in any of the
storms, which will reduce visibility to MVFR/IFR in those
locations.

A few hours of patchy fog is likely in the valleys Tuesday
morning given the moist airmass. Have included fog in the TAFS
for KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. After the fog dissipates, mostly clear
skies are expected for the mid morning Tuesday into the early
afternoon, before another round of scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms.

Forecast confidence is average in all parameters.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday just ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms could
produce IFR to MVFR conditions due to heavy rainfall. Patchy fog
may also occur during the early morning hours due the humid air
mass. In between the storms and the fog, VFR conditions are
anticipated.

Thursday and Friday will be VFR and dry behind the cold front.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/AS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-091015-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Very heavy rainfall rates may result in localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday. Very heavy rainfall rates and
repeated rounds of storms may result in localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-091015-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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