Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic this afternoon and
provide showers and thunderstorms. Drier air should arrive by
late Tuesday, but another cold front will bring more showers and
thunderstorms toward late Wednesday into Thursday. Warmer
temperatures are expected Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Narrow line of convection formed along the Blue Ridge and
shifting northeast into the foothills of VA, with another
cluster north over the Shenandoah Valley and yet another back
across the coalfields of VA into the TN Valley.

Upper trough will shift to mid-Atlantic Tuesday. Will likely see
showers/storms until late evening then dissipating after
midnight.

With clearing skies late tonight, fog will be developing where
it rains.

Front will wash out Tuesday though low level convergence
along/south of southern VA will likely keep another round of
scattered storms Tuesday afternoon.

Not much change in airmass so expect another warm day Tuesday
with 80s for most, and around 90 in the piedmont.

Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Monday...

Lower chances of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday, then a cold
front will arrive toward Thursday.

Following the higher res models actually showing two rounds of
storms, but an issue of again not everyone getting rain but
coverage should be better than the past 2 days, as front moves
closer and we get better upper support.

A few of the storms could bring excessive rainfall if there is
training over the same area, but storm motion is a little faster
today. Also cannot rule isolated strong to severe storms as
SBCAPEs exceeding 2000 and some low level drier air allowing
DCAPES above 1000 J/kg, so a few downbursts possible.

The upper trough axis will pivot east into the Atlantic ocean.
This will allow the upper level ridge to build eastward Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach Wednesday
afternoon and move across Wednesday night into Thursday.

Drier air will arrive on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to
around 70 degrees in the Piedmont. As a cold front approaches
Wednesday, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday
afternoon especially along the southern Blue Ridge. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the west to
the mid 90s in the Piedmont. A cold front will travel across our
area Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will have readings from the mid 60s
in the mountains to lower 70s in the Piedmont. High pressure will
build from the northwest by Thursday night to halt the rain chances.

Moderate confidence in Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Monday...

Drier weather expected Friday and Saturday, then rain chances
increase by Early Next Week.

Northwest downsloping flow will advect drier air into our region
Friday. High temperatures Friday will range from the mid 80s in the
mountains to the mid 90s in the Piedmont. High pressure should
continue quiet weather Friday night into Saturday morning. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 60s. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible Saturday afternoon in the southwestern
mountains. High temperatures Saturday will moderate into the upper
80s in the west to mid 90s in the east as the upper level ridge
slides eastward toward the Mississippi River Valley.

A weak low pressure system could pass over the Great Lakes by
Saturday night and drag a front toward the northern Mid Atlantic
early next week. The heat along with increasing moisture and lift
could spark scattered showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon.
The potential for convection increases Monday and Tuesday.

Moderate Confidence In Long Term Forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will likely
impact the airports or at least come close to each terminal, so
kept VCTS with tempo 2 hours for thunderstorms.

Mainly VFR outside of storms, with a few west/southwest gust to
20kts.

Tonight, activity diminishes and will likely see fog developing.
Higher confidence at LWB/BCB and possibly BLF for sub-VFR.

Tuesday, look for low clouds/fog to dissipate by 13-15z and VFR
thereafter. Storms tomorrow will be widely scattered with best
chance south of a JFZ-BCB line.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, wind.
Average confidence for the timing and location of thunderstorms
today.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mainly VFR through the period, except for potential late
night/early morning fog at LWB/BCB.

Showers and thunderstorms, and the associated MVFR conditions
will resume by late Wednesday into Thursday as another cold
front arrives.

Drier air will return by Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-191745-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms today will be capable of producing torrential rains
which could lead to localized flooding. Also, an isolated severe
storm is possible with damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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