Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift northeast into the Ohio Valley through tonight,
bringing a cold front closer to the region by late Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Tuesday.
Warmer temperatures arrive for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers/storms firing up along/near the Blue Ridge this
afternoon where moisture convergence is higher. More organized
convection resides further west across the Ohio Valley close to
the front and shortwave. For the rest of the afternoon
anticipate the storms over the Blue Ridge area to drift
northeast with scattered storms moving into or developing across
the piedmont. Slow moving storms could produce localized
flooding as pwats are running from 1.3 to 1.7 inches.

The activity further west to make inroads toward our WV counties
by late afternoon/evening, but then weaken after 8 or 9pm.

Most of the night should be fairly quiet but cannot rule out a
few renegade showers/storms.

Better lift arrives Monday ahead of the front so will see an
uptick in coverage at least in the mountains. Cloud cover moving
into area earlier may curtail any severe threat but heavy
rainers likely. The cloud cover may also limit heating so highs
Monday could run several degrees cooler than today, with upper
70s to lower 80s, while the piedmont reaches the mid 80s to
around 90.

Forecast confidence is above average, except average on storm
coverage/location this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Scattered Storms Possible Into Midweek...

An upper trough will pivot east Monday night into Wednesday night.
An associated front will rotate east Monday into Wednesday. The
combination of lift and moisture created by southerly winds will
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will diminish heading
into Monday night with the loss of solar heating. Low temperatures
Monday night will range from the lower 60s in the mountains to
around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.  The front slowly moves south
Tuesday into Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly in the southern portions of
Virginia and into portions of North Carolina. High temperatures
Tuesday will vary from the mid 70s in the mountains to around 90
degrees in Piedmont. Low temperatures night will be mild with
readings generally in the 60s. Stronger return flow and building
heights will warm highs Wednesday into the lower 80s in the
mountains to the mid 90s in Piedmont.

Moderate Confidence In The Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Trough Slide East, Followed By Drier Air...

An upper trough remains over the area Thursday into Friday, then
begins to lift as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Southeast
next weekend. Dry air in the low levels is expected to result in
quieter weather from Friday into Saturday, before another shortwave
provides an opportunity for convection next weekend into early next
week.

Above normal temperatures return into early next week.

Moderate confidence in The Long Term Period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...

Thunderstorms along/near Blue Ridge will likely impact or will
be close to ROA/BCB til 23z. LYH/DAN may start to see potential
storms after 20z, with BLF-LWB in the 19-00z time frame. Mainly
VFR outside any storms.

Fog will be likely tonight where it rains though cloud cover may
limit this. Still kept LWB at VLIFR late tonight as previous taf
showed.

More coverage of storms tomorrow but for now left out of tafs as
much of this happens around or after the end of the taf valid
period.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, wind and the timing
of thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front Monday will bring good coverage of storms in the
afternoon into evening. Anticipate more sub-VFR after 18z
Monday at least to the west of the Blue Ridge.

Coverage will lessen during Tuesday with mainly VFR

Wednesday will be dry and VFR.

Another cold front will arrive by Thursday to enhance the
coverage of storms. Any terminals that receive rainfall during
this time could also experience patchy fog in the early
mornings.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
518 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-WVZ042>044-
507-508-180930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
518 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
late this evening. The primary threat is damaging wind.

In addition, storms will contain heavy rainfall rates that may result
in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues on Monday.
Any of the stronger storms may produce heavy rainfall rates that may
result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ058-059-180930-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Halifax-Charlotte-
518 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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