Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will oscillate north and south of the region
over the next several days. This will result in several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. By the
weekend, an anomalous upper low will settle southward along the
Mid- Atlantic coast bringing a period of damp and unseasonably
cool temperatures to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon
into tonight then cold front passage Wednesday...

A warm front will lift north across the region this afternoon
into tonight, then a cold front approaches Wednesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into this
evening with the best chance in the mountains. Some of the
storms could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds
especially over southern Virginia and northern North Carolina.
Forecasted SFC CAPE could climb to around 1500 j/kg with decent
shear in the Piedmont supporting stronger updrafts and better
organization. The NAMnest and HRRR captured the develop of
convection this afternoon across the western mountains pretty
well. Most model solutions showed that the best coverage of
storms will be between 2 pm and 8 pm.

As a shortwave cross the region, we may see more coverage
of storms late tonight into early Wednesday morning when
additional convection develops ahead of the cold front. This
front will reach our western doorstep tomorrow morning. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the
mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont.

A cold front will push east across our region on Wednesday with
scattered convection especially in the east. High temperatures
will vary from the lower 60s in the northwest to the mid 80s in
the southeast.

Moderate confidence in Near Term Forecast Period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday...

  Brief Period of Dry Conditions, Followed by Another System
Arriving by Friday Morning

A bit of upper level ridging builds in following the frontal passage
for a brief period of high pressure and dry conditions for Wednesday
night through Thursday. A warm front enters the area from the SW,
bringing rain and thunderstorm chances to the North Carolina High
Country and Southern Blue Ridge early Friday morning. There are some
differences in models regarding how early precipitation arrives on
Friday, but will likely be in the area by mid-morning. Instability
looks to remain limited in the morning, but increases throughout the
day as temperatures warm. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid
70s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s in the east on Thursday,
but cool to the low to mid 70s on Friday.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday...

        Lingering Rain for the Weekend, Drying for the Beginning of Next
Work Week...

The surface low and associated cold front moves to the east, toward
the NC Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm
chances linger across the area behind the front as another surface
low develops in the Ohio Valley. This system will move offshore by
Sunday, with surface high pressure following behind for Monday and
Tuesday, and a return to drier conditions. Northwest flow behind the
system will keep temperatures on the cool side for the beginning of
the work week.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

A warm front lifts north across the area this afternoon into
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along
this front. The greatest concentrated will be along the Blue
Ridge escarpment. A shower or thunderstorms can occur at all the
taf sites especially after 20Z. Ceilings should remain mainly
VFR with occasional MVFR this afternoon and evening mainly with
showers and thunderstorms.

Ceilings may raise briefly after 00Z with a mix of low and mid
VFR clouds. Then, pockets of low clouds and fog will develop
overnight especially where it rains. A cold front approaches
Wednesday morning, ceilings will decrease in the western and
northern TAF sites like KBLF and KLWB. A few showers or isolated
TSRA is possible ahead of the cold front. Scattered MVFR storms
are possible ahead of the cold front Wednesday.

Winds will be south becoming more southwesterly and increasing
this afternoon into this evening. Then, winds diminish
overnight. West winds arrive Wednesday behind the cold front.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon as the cold front moves east. West winds
will become gusty. Wednesday evening and Thursday expect VFR
conditions with no rain expected and clearing skies.

By Friday, a deep upper low settles overhead and may bring
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms at least through the
weekend. The increased moisture and rainfall will also result
in increased potential for late night and early morning dense
fog. Unsettled weather continues Saturday, then air air arrive
for Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/SH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...KK/SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ010>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-041745-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
143 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
especially closer to the Blue Ridge. The stronger storms could
produce strong wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-041745-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
143 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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