Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper troughing across the Great Lakes will help to push a weak
cold front south to the North Carolina border by late Sunday.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
accompany the front. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

  Better probability of precipitation shifts south on Sunday...

500 MB flow starts out zonal over the region and gradually becomes a
bit more from the northwest. The surface front to the northwest of
the area approaches tonight reaching around Lewisburg and Hot
Springs by Sunday morning then continuing to move slowly south to
the Virginia/North Carolina border by the end of the day.

Expecting a similar distribution in showers and thunderstorms
that have occurred along the front the past few days will better
areal coverage aligned along the front during the day and less,
but not completely gone, overnight. In addition, models still
showing isolated to scattered thunderstorms south of the front
with daytime heating, especially in the mountains early this
afternoon and then in the foothills and piedmont for the late
afternoon and evening. Will have the lowest probability of
precipitation between 06Z/2AM and 12Z/8AM, and the highest
probabilities over southern Virginia and Northern North Carolina
after 18Z/2PM Sunday.

Precipitable water values will increase to just over 2 inches along
the front extreme southern Virginia on Sunday afternoon. So still a
threat of locally heavy rainfall rates and isolated flash flooding.

Expecting scattered to broken mid and high clouds after the storms
diminish late this evening. Surface dew points will be in remain in
the lower 60s to lower 70s so still humid and not much  cooling
potential. Lows tonight will be similar to Saturday morning. Will
have most locations in the 80s on Sunday due to the clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...

Most areas will be shower and thunderstorm free the evening of
Independence Day but expect coverage to increase by Tuesday.

A cold front will head south of the region Sunday night but not
before some showers and storms have a chance to linger across mainly
southern parts of the region during the evening. By midnight, most,
if not all, of the region is expected to be precipitation-free with
temperatures trending cooler as compared with Saturday night thanks
to decreasing dew point values behind the front. For Independence
Day, low level winds are expected to veer southeast, and allow for a
bit of a resurgence of moisture back to the area, especially the
southwestern sections. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected during the afternoon hours. However, given these are
expected to be diurnal in nature, they should decrease around sunset
with the last showers and storms ending across the Northern
Mountains of North Carolina and neighboring sections of southwest
Virginia.

On Tuesday into Tuesday night, we will start to get a taste for what
is expected to become a greater reality as we progress through the
remainder of the week. An upper ridge will be strengthening across
the mid-Mississippi Valley, and start to inch westward, more into
the Central to Southern High Plains. This transition will open the
door to our northwest for increasing potential for upstream energy
to head southeast into the area. A decreasing cap aloft will not
only allow for better chances of diurnal showers and storms, but
with the potential for an upstream shortwave trough to pass over or
near the region allow for even better coverage that could last into
parts of much of Tuesday night, especially in the west. Temperatures
and humidity will again start creeping upward.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1115 AM EDT Saturday...

Daily chances of showers and storms with above normal temperatures
and humid conditions are expected, along with potentially flooding
concerns for some areas.

During this portion of the forecast the region is still expected to
be on the edge of a broad upper ridge centered over the Southern
Plains states. The big question will not be so much if, but more
like when, will upstream disturbances from the Upper Mississippi
Valley or Great Lakes region head southeast along this same ridge
edge across, or close enough, to our region to promote more than
diurnal showers and storms across the area? As a follow up question,
will these systems cross with enough precipitation and frequency to
pose a flooding threat to parts of the area?

For now, model consensus places the best, but not the only,
potential for more-than-diurnal coverage on Thursday/Thursday night
and then again Friday afternoon. Regarding the question for the
potential for flooding, we will have to see how each day stacks-up
in regard to precipitation amounts. However, given the general
northwest to southeast track these systems are expected to have, our
southeast West Virginia counties may receive the brunt of the
precipitation thanks to upslope trajectories over that region on
western facing slopes.

Confidence in the general synoptic pattern during this portion of
the forecast is moderate, with low confidence in the precipitation
fine details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility due to very heavy rain. The
coverage of storms will diminish after sunset, but will not
completely go away due to a cold front moving south into
southern Virginia overnight.

Locations that get rain this afternoon will have MVFR fog
overnight. Models were also indicating stratus will form after
midnight. Have widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings in the forecast
between 06Z/2AM and 12Z/8AM. Ceilings and fog will lift after
sunrise and once mixing begins and are expected to return to VFR
around 14Z/10AM. More thunderstorms will develop by the end of
the TAF forecast period, especially over southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina.

Average confidence for wind, ceiling, and visibility.
Average confidence for timing and location of thunderstorms.

 Extended Aviation Discussion...

Scattered to numerous largely diurnal showers/thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday through Thursday, although there is the
potential for some activity during the nighttime hours through
the period.

Late night/early morning areas of MVFR to LIFR fog are likely
each day, especially in locations that had rain the previous
afternoon/evening and in area river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-058-059-031200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Halifax-Charlotte-
303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe and
produce damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday and again
Tuesday through Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening
each day. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall Sunday. The main hazards with any severe thunderstorms
will be damaging wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. Localized
flooding will also be possible where there are persistent or multiple
rounds of thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-WVZ042>044-507-508-
031200-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
tonight. The main hazards with any severe thunderstorms will be
damaging wind gusts and possibly quarter-sized hail. Localized
flooding will also be possible where thunderstorms persist or occur
repeatedly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Friday,especially during the afternoon and evening each day. The
main hazards with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail. Localized flooding will also be possible where
there are persistent or multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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