Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
752 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region through
Thursday, with showers and thunderstorm chances along and ahead
of it. High pressure builds in for Thursday night through
Sunday. The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms
will be on Sunday night and Monday with the passage of another
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday...

The main forecast update has been the addition of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 404 across our southeast West Virginia
counties and Tazewell County in VA. This watch is in response to
concern of convection across parts of OH/WV heading south as the
evening progresses, encountering an unstable airmass. Just how
long the system will sustain itself on its south boundary
density current after sunset is a question. The latest CAM
solutions and guidance by SPC offer an answer of to
approximately the southern extent of Watch 404. As the evening
progresses, if an additional push of severe weather south of the
current watch area looks promising, we can always add counties
if needed.

As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

Severe thunderstorm watch 401 til 02z/10pm from the Alleghanys
to southside VA (Bath-Buckingham south to Halifax). Damaging
winds the main threat later this afternoon/early evening.

Forecast challenge will be how far south severe threat will be
this afternoon/evening...

Overall, models are in reasonable agreement as far as timing
storms moving on the western side of the upper low off the
northeast/mid-Atlantic coast, sliding toward our piedmont of VA
counties mid to late afternoon, roughly after 4pm. Question is
the storm threat with the front in the Ohio Valley, as models
are fairly weak through late afternoon with the upper forcing on
the northeast edge of the upper ridge, with most keeping the
best lift across the upper Ohio Valley, before finally dropping
a piece of energy southward into the Alleghanys/WV area after
midnight but timing varies.

High-res/CAMs show convection running from KY to northern VA/WV
by 8pm, then sliding south into our mountains/Southern
Shenandoah Valley after 8pm, with timing difference. Also it
shows weakening trend late in the evening.

With just high clouds around today, sunshine will allow for
temperatures to ramp up into the 90s east of the mountains, and
mid to upper 80s west.

This will add fuel as SBCAPES exceed 1500 J/kg by early evening
north of U.S. 460. The marginal risk has been expanded southward
to include all of southeast WV east through the New River Valley
into southside VA and NC piedmont east of Greensboro, with
slight risk mainly north of I-64.

Winds will be the main threat as DCAPEs over a 1000 J/kg may are
possible, given still lingering dry air in the low levels.

Locally heavy rainfall likely mainly east of the Blue Ridge and
north of the Roanoke River/Southside as PWATS increase to 1.6 to
2.0+ in this area late afternoon.

How far south the thunderstorms reach is a low confidence
forecast, but models struggle with this setup and we can
sometimes see organized convection extend longer in time and
further south than what models show.

Activity looks to fade after midnight with residual showers from
upper low near the mid-Atlantic coast possibly reaching as far
west as U.S. 29. This will be the case into Thursday before the
front clears the area, but overall mainly dry a somewhat cooler
Thursday behind the front.

Forecast confidence high on higher pops in the north later this
afternoon/evening but lower on how far south the strong storms
make it and flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

     Largely quiet, slightly cooler end to the week...

After a trough is pulled out into the Atlantic on Thursday, high
pressure and ridging will build over the area Thursday night into
Friday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than earlier in the
week, in the upper 70s and 80s both Friday and Saturday, with
Saturday being a touch warmer and more humid.

Underneath the ridging, Friday will be a quiet weather day. With the
 slight increase in moisture due by Saturday, a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms mainly in northwest NC and the southern
Blue Ridge is possible with the assistance of daytime orographic
lift/heating. Anything that does form will be sub-severe on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

     Early week system brings cooldown and storms...

A stout upper trough will push through the northern plains this
weekend and into the upper OH River Valley by Sunday afternoon. This
trough will carry with it a trailing cold front. In the Sunday
afternoon and evening hours just ahead of the front's arrival,
expect showers and thunderstorms to begin to form up in our area,
starting in the west. The strongest convection will likely occur
Monday through Monday evening, calming into the late Monday
overnight hours. Behind this strong frontal boundary, temperatures
and dewpoints will drop considerably, ushering in drier and below
normal temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Amend not sked added to BLF due to comms outage and potential
for sub-VFR later this afternoon/evening with storms.

Eastern and western flanks of the forecast region have the best
potential for sub-VFR conditions as showers and storms cross
these region. This is ongoing in the east currently, and is
expected to start in one to three hours across the west. Central
sections have the best potential of staying mainly VFR through
the night. Where precipitation does occur, patchy fog
development is possible late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Any overnight sub-VFR conditions are expected to return
to VFR by mid-day Thursday.

Winds will generally be light and variable through the period
except near thunderstorms where variable and gusty is forecast.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mainly VFR conditions through Saturday, with isolated storms
possible Saturday. Could also have late night fog brought on by
rain and increased RH. Sunday night and Monday another front
crosses the area with scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Comms outage per FAA at Bluefield ASOS, preventing transmission
of surface observations. Unknown when this will be resolved.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
652 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

NCZ004>006-VAZ009>014-016>019-022-023-032>034-043-044-232300-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-
652 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible into this evening. The primary
threat is damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ020-024-035-045>047-058-059-232300-
Bath-Rockbridge-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
652 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather by
calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov
or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015-232300-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-
652 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible later this evening. The primary
threat is damaging wind..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-232300-
Tazewell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
652 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather by
calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov
or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>