Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
217 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Illinois will track through the Ohio Valley
tonight with showers and thunderstorms along the cold front
extending into the Tennessee Valley. The front will move
offshore on Thursday followed by a break in the humidity and dry
weather under high pressure. Another low pressure system and the
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives in the Mid
Atlantic region for Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

 Best chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms were had developed along the higher elevations of
Virginia, West Virginia and northern North Carolina. The air
mass was unstable with Lifted Index values down to -8 and
Convective Available Potential Energy in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. However, limited shear is expected to keep most storms
from becoming severe. Any of the more intense storms will have
the potential for damaging wind gusts.

In addition, precipitable water values were slowly rising and will
reach 1.5 inches as far north as Roanoke this afternoon. Storms will
be moving east at 10 to 20 mph. But with heavy rainfall rates and
with in any locations that get multiple thunderstorms, localized
flooding will be possible.

Watching a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in Illinois
associated with a low pressure system. This low will move east into
the Ohio Valley tonight then into southern New York by Thursday
morning. More thunderstorms will develop along the cold front
trailing this low and these reach the central Appalachians in the
evening. Areal coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms
will diminish after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Confidence is high for drier weather during Thursday night and
Friday, but more showers and thunderstorms may follow afterward.

High pressure will nose southeastward into the Mid Atlantic during
Thursday night. Drier air should allow temperatures to drop into the
50s by Friday morning, and a few upper 40s may be possible in the
sheltered mountain valleys if the winds go calm. As the high slides
offshore during Friday afternoon, a shortwave trough and an
accompanying wave of low pressure should approach the Appalachian
Mountains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could arrive during
Friday evening into Friday night, but the models disagree on the
coverage and other details to make it difficult to justify likely
probabilities of precipitation.

Lingering showers may continue into Saturday as the wave of low
pressure reaches the coast. If this wave of low pressure does not
move offshore as quickly by Saturday afternoon, there may be a
chance of thunderstorms developing across the Piedmont until drier
air arrives from the west to drop the instability. Eventually, high
pressure should enter on Saturday night to halt the chances of
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Confidence is increasing on a warming trend for early next week.

A broad upper level ridge will drift eastward from the southern
Plains on Sunday. It is projected to increase in amplitude by Monday
over the lower Mississippi River Valley and hold firm through
Wednesday. As a result, the increasing heights aloft will start a
warming trend across the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures could climb into
the 90s east of the Blue Ridge starting on Monday. As the heat
returns, the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms should
increase. However, confidence is very low regarding where to place
any chances of showers and thunderstorms given the substantial
disagreement among the models trying to depict the location and
timing of any convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will
cover the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas through
04Z/midnight. At the beginning of the TAF forecast period KLWB
and KLYH. Timing at the rest of the local airports will be
handled on a much shorter time range with amendments.

Coverage of thunderstorms will diminish after 04Z/midnight
leaving MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR fog. As a cold front
crosses the region from west to east and winds turn from the
southwest to west, then northwest, ceilings will lift and clear
out east of the Blue Ridge. Expect KROA, KLYH and KDAN to return
to VFR before 12Z/8AM. In the mountains upslope clouds will
hold in for the morning. Improvement back to VFR at KLWB and
KBLF before the 15Z/11AM is unlikely.

Winds will gusts 20 to 30 knots behind the front on Thursday.

Average confidence for ceiling visibility and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

VFR conditions and high pressure are forecast Thursday night.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms and associated MVFR
conditions will be Friday night and Saturday.

Dry weather and high pressure are expected for Sunday and
Monday. The only exception will be late night and early morning
fog in the usual valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-091200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe.
The main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. The most
likely time frame for severe thunderstorms looks to be in the 2 PM
EDT to 10 PM EDT time frame. In addition, locally heavy rainfall
could lead to isolated incidents of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday into
Saturday and again by Tuesday. However, the probability for
widespread hazardous weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening
to provide information on severe thunderstorms and flooding. Reports
should be submitted via phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, through our
social media platforms, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or online
through our "submit a storm report" located at www.weather.gov/rnk.

RAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>