Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Blacksburg, VA

870 
WGUS71 KRNK 220055
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
855 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

VAC035-220445-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220822T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Carroll VA-
855 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT MONDAY 
FOR CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY...

At 855 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
Hillsville. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hillsville...                      Sylvatus...
Woodlawn...                        Gladesboro...
Dugspur...                         Byllesby...

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Burks Fork, Island Creek, Big Reed Island Creek, Dixon Branch, 
  Brush Creek, Brannon Branch, Buddle Branch, Cranberry Creek, 
  Crooked Creek, Chestnut Creek, East Fork Little Reed Island Creek 
  and East Fork Crooked Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8073 3686 8059 3681 8055 3673 8058
      3671 8066 3673 8080 3672 8094 3682 8099

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

PW

692 
WGUS71 KRNK 220336
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1136 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

VAC035-220346-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220822T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Carroll VA-
1136 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3687 8073 3686 8059 3681 8055 3673 8058
      3671 8066 3673 8080 3672 8094 3682 8099

$$

WP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
613 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through Monday as a slow moving storm system moves across the
Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the
system as it moves off the coast by Tuesday. This should bring a
few days of drying with only isolated rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm for
much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 PM EDT Sunday...

...Widely scattered showers and isolated storms tonight...

The mean upper trough will shift from the central to the
eastern Great Lakes overnight. The southern Appalachians remains
in WSW flow aloft and will continue to be affected by periodic
showers and isolated storms through tonight and into the
overnight hours. Roads were reported underwater in Franklin
County where a Flood Warning is in effect. Any repeated showers
or backbuilding will produce moderate to heavy rainfall, and
this could lead to additional isolated instances of flash
flooding. After midnight, we should be mostly rain-free
however as convection weakens. Expecting plenty of stratus and
fog overnight with lows similar to last night. Have adjusted
PoPs and weather grids based on the latest trends.

Storms and showers return tomorrow around noon as a synoptic
front pushes east.

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Heavy rain threat continues for this evening with potential for
thunderstorms containing excessive rainfall.

Upper level short wave trough is passing overhead. This feature
was embedded within a much larger long wave trough which was
slowly moving east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Lift
associated with the short wave resulted in a couple swaths of
heavier rain this morning...one across the I-64 Corridor, and
one up through the NC/VA piedmont. Rainfall amounts of 2.50 to
3.25 were observed between Lexington and Raphine.

Additional rain is likely this evening. Easterly winds in the
wake of the morning activity is converging with unstable
westerly flow from the OH/TN Valley. This convergence zone
extends from Martinsville-Roanoke-Lewisburg and will likely
provide focus for showers/storms this evening. Flow aloft is out
of the west-southwest at about 20 mph, but the convergence zone
may provide for an area of localized anchoring of storm cells
this evening. Thought about issuing a small county based Flood
Watch for flash flooding for this area (MTV-ROA-LWB)...but will
forgo for now and monitor radar trends to see if the above
reasoning justifies a headline.

After we get past the marginal threat for excessive rain this
evening, the overall forecast focus will return to whatever the
upper level long wave trough can muster for the remainder of the
overnight and through the day Monday. Can't rule out a shower at
any given time, but think coverage will be less on Monday
compared to Sunday. Flow aloft turns more westerly on
Monday...convergence occuring mainly within the lee trough east
of the Blue Ridge. Convective allowing models initiate
scattered showers/storms primarily along the Blue Ridge during
the early afternoon Monday, then move the activity off to the
east across the foothills and piedmont. Models also develop a
few showers across WV along the windward slopes.

Cloud cover will continue to suppress temperatures for the
remainder of today...yet keep them nearly steady tonight. Any
clearing late tonight will allow for some radiational cooling
but think fog would quickly develop and mitigate temperatures
from falling much either. With increasing westerly winds Monday,
anticipate more breaks in the cloud cover, a bit warmer with
respect to temperatures. Highs Monday...70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

An upper level trough will pivot over the Mid Atlantic region
Monday night as the cold front moves to the east coast. Any
showers coming across the area with the trough should deposit a
couple hundredths of an inch or less of rain along western
slopes. In westerly flow, showers should not survive the trek
across the mountains.

Weak high pressure builds in behind the trough Tuesday and will
hang around into Thursday. Models are now displaying a
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday as opposed to a
southeasterly flow yesterday. With less moisture advecting into
the area, the chance for showers is lower. Plan to lower PoPs by
10-20 percent each afternoon.

Fair weather cumulus clouds will pepper the skies Tuesday and
Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will warm to near normal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

A tropical wave is expected to track across the southeastern
states Thursday and hover along the NC/VA coast Friday.
Easterly flow will help increase moisture into the area and
along with afternoon heating, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible. This wave should jog north Saturday,
allowing dry air to advect into the area on northerly flow.
Precipitation type should turn from showers to light
rain/drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure
will build in once this wave get kicked out to sea Sunday.

Near normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday, then
cooler than normal for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread sub-VFR is likely through early Monday associated
with areas of showers and thunderstorms, in addition to areas of
stratus and fog for the overnight.

Forecast confidence = good.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...
An upper level trough will linger over the region into Monday
before moving east of the area. Until its passage expected areas
of sub-VFR. Looking at a return to mainly VFR for Tuesday and
Wednesday aside for mountain valley stratus/fog. Showers return
for the end of the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-058-221830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Halifax-
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>044-507-
508-221830-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms with
excessive rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds...mainly today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLOOD            1 E FAIRFIELD           37.88N 79.28W
08/21/2022                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            STERRETT ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
            THE WATER LIKELY CAME FROM MARLBROOK CREEK.

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
254 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLOOD            3 WSW FAIRFIELD         37.86N 79.35W
08/21/2022                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            OLD CHAPEL ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH KENNEL HILL LANE.
            THE WATER LIKELY CAME FROM A TRIBUTARY OF
            MILL CREEK.

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE MILLBORO          37.93N 79.59W
08/21/2022                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE FEET OF WATER FLOODED BLACKS RUN AND
            CLOSED THE ROAD. THE WATER CAME FROM BOTH
            BLACK RUN AND BRATTONS RUN.

&&

PW