Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
244 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Wednesday, more likely in the afternoon
and evening hours. Flash flooding remains possible into mid week.
Drier weather is expected to return late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

The forecast continues to reflect afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as persistent moisture pooling from Gulf and
diurnal heating work hand in hand to sprout isolated to
scattered convection. Satellite imagery at the time of writing
depicts this metamorphosis as the early afternoon cumulus field
overcomes any lingering capping inhibition to stretch vertically
to become thunderstorms. The environment remains conducive for
pulse type storms and the capability of training and
backbuilding through the course of the afternoon and evening.

Lack of steering flow aloft will translate to slowly
propagating storms this afternoon in an area that has been
inundated with convection for numerous days. Flash flood
guidance continues to depict severely compromised values in the
majority of the forecast area, particularly in spots north of
the Charleston metro. Instantaneous precipitation rates for
storms already working their way across the Ohio River Valley
have been fairly isolated with pockets of 1-1.5" per hour, with
less than that reaching the ground so far according to nearby
gages and public reports. While storms will be isolated to
scattered throughout the day, antecedent soil conditions and
potentially intensifying rainfall rates as the day wears on pose
a concern for flash flooding. With all of this in mind, will
allow the Flood Watch to run its course into late tonight when
showers and storms come to a conclusion after sunset.

The upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged for the start
of the work week, resulting in a duplicate chance for showers
and thunderstorms by the afternoon on Monday. Diurnally driven
showers and storms will then fall by the wayside heading into
Monday evening.

As has been the case the past several days, hourly temperatures
this afternoon could plummet in the event showers and storms
pass overhead. Have already seen this occur across northeast
Kentucky today where storms have slashed temperatures down by
10-15 degrees. A possible rebound may attempt in these areas
pending radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A shortwave is expected to cross through southeastern Canada while a
surface low develops over New England. A cold front will be pulled
towards the area as the low and shortwave continue to shift
east through mid week. Showers and storms are expected to
develop during the day Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of
the front, although better activity is likely to occur as the
front slowly crosses through late Tuesday through Wednesday. A
passing shortwave may maintain activity into Wednesday night,
before helping to push the front out of the area.

Severe weather potential is expected to remain low through mid week
due to a lack of shear; however, a combination of heavy rain
and the slow movement of the front may lead to localized
flooding on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

Seasonable temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the
mountains. Cloud cover and precipitation should then result in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday, with highs topping out in the
upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands and upper 60s to 70s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

On Thursday, an upper trough digs into the eastern US while ridging
will be present across the central and southwest portions of the
country. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger behind a mid
week cold front, maintaing chances for scattered showers and storms
during the day Thursday. Models indicate a little additional
precipitation may be possible as another front crosses through
Thursday night into early Friday. Surface high pressure and drier
air are then expected to build into the area behind the front,
resulting generally drier weather from late week into the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal from
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

Entering into the time of day where showers and isolated
thunderstorms sprout within the afternoon cumulus field. At the
time of writing, cloud bases were parked between 3-5kft AGL at
most sites with vertical development still positioned west of
the Ohio River. Very little lightning was indicated when the
forecast was issued, but in this summer pattern it won't be long
before VCTS or TSRA will be observed along our western and
mountain terminals.

Direct impacts to airfields will be more isolated in nature
compared to past few days, primarily from activity that builds
in from the southwest. Rolled with tempo groups at all sites to
account for a brief interruption to flight rules. These showers
and storms are mainly being driven by daytime heating today,
which will then reach dissipation stage after sunset.

Another night of river valley fog is on tap tonight, but
coverage and intensity looks to be variable. Included sub-VFR
for terminals with more optimal conditions overnight and held
off on areas where breezy low level flow could transpire. Any
fog that develops will then quickly erode after sunrise Monday
morning.

We remain in a warm and moist weather pattern Monday, allotting
for another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will be light to breezy
around 5-10KTS during the daytime hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of convection this
afternoon and evening, and fog overnight tonight, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday, and then in fog and / or stratus early
Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
081000-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and and the lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s, combined with dew points in the lower
to mid 70s, will result in heat indices in the lower to mid 90s,
even the upper 90s in a few spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms could bring heavy downpours, with the
threat for localized flooding increasing again during the early to
middle part of the week, until a cold front finally crosses.

Highs in the 85 to 90 degree range, combined with dew points in the
lower to mid 70s, will result in heat indices in the lower to mid
90s, even the upper 90s in a few spots, Monday and Tuesday
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-081000-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
the mountains of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms could bring heavy downpours, with the
threat for localized flooding increasing again during the early to
middle part of the week, until a cold front finally crosses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM/GW

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