Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure center and its associated cold front cross the
area tonight. Mainly dry Thursday and Friday, rain returns
Friday night. Periods of rain and storms continue this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 805 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the area
this evening, with some strong to severe. A Tornado Watch is in
effect until 1AM for portions of southeast OH, northeast KY, and
northern WV, through which severe storms, some producing
tornadoes, will continue to be possible. Otherwise damaging
winds, heavy downpours, and hail are the main threats expected
with any stronger storms.

Storm activity is expected to begin to wane later tonight,
lingering longest along the northeast mountains. Have adjusted
precipitation chances through the evening and into tonight to
reflect current radar trends.

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

A surface low pressure center and its associated cold front cross
from west to east tonight, spreading showers and thunderstorms. Some
of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail be the
main threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out during the evening
hours. Shower activity will diminish in intensity and coverage
behind the frontal passage, with the front exiting east of the
mountains by Thursday morning.

Abundant cloudiness and strong flow aloft will favor low stratus
instead of fog overnight tonight, except over the most protected
river valleys that receive rainfall earlier.

Cooler/drier air filters behind the front, bringing lows generally
into the lower 60s lowlands ranging into the mid 50s highest
elevations. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 70s lowlands,
into the lower 60s highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Showers continue to wrap up along the higher terrain at the
start of the period with the cold front sweeping east of the
area. High pressure enters the area for the end of the work
week, albeit fleetingly, which allows for dry weather briefly
Friday morning.

A new disturbance enters into the Ohio River Valley Friday
afternoon with increased cloudiness proceeded by showers and
storms during the evening timeframe. A robust upper level trough
settles into the eastern United States and leaves the door open
for additional precipitation heading into the weekend.
Temperatures through the period hold steady near the
climatological normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Showers continue into the long term period Saturday as a
shortwave trough makes it passage through the area. This feature
will depart to the east late Saturday night, but lingering
activity may attempt to hug the higher terrain for a bit longer.
Ridging aloft looks to take shape and amplify by the end of the
weekend and into the start of next week. However, one last
hurrah of shortwave energy sneaks down from the northwest on
Sunday and provides additional showers before the ridge arrives.
Plenty of moisture will still reside beneath the ridge for
Monday onward, which coupled with a warming trend anticipated
for this time may allow for afternoon convection to transpire
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 805 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a front are moving
across the area this evening, some strong to severe. All sites
will have the chance to be affected by thunderstorms through the
evening and into early tonight, during which conditions could
fall into the IFR/LIFR range in heavy downpours. Gusty winds
will also be possible with any storms that affect the sites and
a few may even have some small hail. Have TSRA coded in at most
sites through the evening, but will monitor and make any
amendments as needed.

Showers and storms should wane and begin to move out later
tonight from west to east, lingering longest near EKN and CKB.
As the front crosses through the area, ceilings are expected to
lower into the MVFR range. Low stratus and/or fog could occur at
a few sites overnight but with cloud cover largely expected to
remain over the area, not expecting too much in terms of
restrictions from fog. However, could see ceiling drops lower
than currently in TAFs if lower stratus does form. Mostly drier
weather is then expected for the remainder of the period with
the potentially for a few showers along the northeast mountains
tomorrow.

Southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 kts starts the period,
shifting to become southwesterly overnight, and shifting further
to northwesterly by tomorrow. Gustier winds will be possible if
any storms directly affect any sites. Tomorrow afternoon, flow
will pick up to around 8 to 12 kts with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts
possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR and lower conditions due to showers
and storms could vary from forecast. Ceilings may lower more
than expected tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/09/22
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MEK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/CG
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-
091900-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
248 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms will be present across the
area this afternoon and evening. The main threats are damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and locally heavy downpours. In addition, the
area is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Localized
flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-091900-
Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-
248 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

In addition, the area is under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. Localized flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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