Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluding low pressure system lifts through today and
tonight with strong to severe storms. Cooler by Friday and the
weekend, with shower chances lingering.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

A weakening cold front exits east of the Appalachians first thing
tonight, taking most of the convective precipitation with it.
Temperatures will be close to their dewpoints tonight, generally in
the mid to upper 40s. Models keep strong winds at H850 all night.
These winds will help to prevent dense fog formation, despite of
antecedent precipitation.

A brief surface ridge keeps dry conditions Thursday morning, but
another weakening cold front approaches from the west to keep chance
for light precipitation at least along the eastern mountains during
the afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday will be mostly dry, except for isolated showers across the
Middle Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Expect mild
afternoon temperatures, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

The region will be under the influence of a dry slot associated with
an elongated area of surface low pressure stretching from Paducah
to Detroit Thursday night into Friday morning. As the surface warms
through the day Friday, some low topped, isolated to scattered
showers appear possible, although any accumulation potential will be
rather limited due to a sharp inversion around H700.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Broad cyclonic flow associated with a departing area of low pressure
remains over the region early Saturday, with a reinforcing northern
stream low approaching during the day. This will produce
synoptic rain and snow during the day Saturday, before this system
too exits to the east. This exiting system will then setup a period
of cold, northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes yielding lake
enhanced snow and rain showers Saturday afternoon through Sunday,
with diurnal enhancement likely as strong late March sun angles warm
the surface during the day setting up steep low level lapse rates.

Across the lower elevations, flakes can be expected, perhaps heavy
at times in squalls, but a combination of surface temperatures
marginally above freezing and very warm ground temperatures should
keep any accumulations confined to grassy or elevated surfaces. In
the mountains, several inches of snow will be possible through
Sunday evening, but again, warm ground temperatures look to limit
impactful accumulations, especially given the diurnally enhanced
aspect (with breaks to sunshine between showers) promoting melting.

Should see any lingering upslope showers tapering off to flurries
during the day Monday as flow shifts a little more west-
northwesterly amid continued unseasonably cool conditions.

Heights rise Monday into Tuesday as ridging over the intermountain
west begins to shift east in response to a developing Four Corners
Low. A warm front associated with this system lifts north across the
forecast area Monday night into Tuesday yielding mainly light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 201 PM Wednesday...

Bands of showers and thunderstorms, ahead of an advancing cold
front, will develop across eastern KY and southern OH and move
north northeast to affect our CWA this afternoon and evening.
VFR conditions will turn quickly to brief periods of IFR under
moderate to heavy rain, followed by MVFR ceilings.

The environment is conducive to strong to severe thunderstorms
through this evening. SPC has most of the area under a Slight
Risk for severe storms. Expect thunderstorms to produce strong
to damaging wind gusts, as well as hail, and the possibility of
isolated tornadoes. A lesser, Marginal Risk remains along the
western slopes and eastern mountains through tonight.

The cold front is forecast to cross the area from around 00Z to
06Z tonight from west to east. However, winds aloft are
expected to remain strong all night. This could produce LLWS
mainly across the higher terrain sites. Coded LLWS at EKN, CKB
and BKW roughly from 23Z through 04Z Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty surface winds will fluctuate. Timing
of showers and occurrence of thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>027-
029-241845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Gilmer-
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 67 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ028-033-034-241845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Braxton-McDowell-Wyoming-
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. A Slight Risk of
severe weather exists for locally damaging winds, hail or possibly a
tornado this afternoon into this evening. Heavy downpours will also
be possible, especially within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ030-032-039-040-515>526-241845-
Lewis-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
Marginal Risk of severe weather exists for locally damaging winds
and hail this afternoon into this evening. Heavy downpours will also
be possible, especially within thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ031-241845-
Harrison-
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 67 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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