Snow Squall Warning 3, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings a quick shot of snow today. Dry and cold
through the weekend. Dry, mild for the short work week. Low
pressure brings precipitation for Thanksgiving into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

A cold front with an upper short wave will pull out of the
region later today, bringing an end to the snow. Much drier air
will move into the area behind the cold front as cold high
pressure system builds in. This will allow for clearing skies
tonight.

Unseasonably cool air will remain on Saturday despite plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Dry weather is expected across the majority of the area as a
moisture deprived cold front sweeps through Saturday night; however,
flurries can't be ruled out over the northeast mountains. Very cold
air flowing into the area behind the front will pull temperatures
down into the 10 to 20 degree range overnight.

Gusty winds are likely to accompany the frontal passage and then
persist due to strong flow lingering in its wake. In the higher
elevations, gusts up to around 45 mph may also result in wind chills
around 10 below zero early Sunday morning. With such cold conditions
anticipated, a Wind Chill Advisory may eventually be needed for
portions of the northeast mountains.

Mountain flurries may persist into Sunday morning before coming to
an end, then cold and dry conditions are expected across the area as
surface high pressure builds in from the southwest. Wind gusts along
the higher terrain will gradually diminish throughout the day.
Sunday's high temperatures are likely to top out in the upper 20s to
low 30s in the lowlands and teens to 20s along the mountains.
Another rather cold night is then expected, with lows once again
falling to 10-20 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure continues to maintain dry and tranquil weather
through Wednesday, then moisture begins to increase for the end of
next week as an upper trough and associated cold front approach from
the west, and a low moves up the southeast Coast. Due to differing
model solutions, have introduced precipitation as early as Thursday
(Thanksgiving) afternoon; however, better chances are expected to
occur Thursday night into Friday. Rain should be the primary
precipitation type for the majority of the CWA, while a wintry mix
will be possible in the higher elevations.

As far as temperatures go, Monday will be noticeably warmer than the
previous couple of days, likely reaching highs in the mid to upper
40s across the lowlands and upper 30s to 40s along the mountains. A
slight warming trend continues through Thanksgiving, before cooler
air returns late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

A cold front will push across the region this afternoon provide
some snow with IFR restrictions. The snow will end later this
afternoon and evening, giving way to VFR conditions. VFR
conditions will continue through the remainder of the TAF.

Gusty northwesterly winds can be expected behind the front this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with snow, then high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in snow and snow
ending could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EST 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RPY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
104 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521-
525-191815-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Northwest Randolph-
104 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Light to moderate snow showers associated with a cold front are
expected to move through the area this afternoon. A quick inch of
snow is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ520-522-523-526-191815-
Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Randolph-
104 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Light to moderate snow showers associated with a cold front are
expected to move through the area this afternoon. A quick inch of
snow is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind gusts of up to 45 mph will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday. This will also reduce wind chill values to near -10 degrees.
A wind advisory and/or a wind chill advisory may be required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033-034-
515>519-524-191815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Pocahontas-
104 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia,
southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     SNOW             CLARKSBURG              39.28N 80.33W
11/18/2022  M1.0 INCH        HARRISON           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&