Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
948 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Storms possible tonight. Some storms later today and tonight
could be severe. Heat wave expected for the work week with
diurnal thunderstorms. Warm front Thursday. Cold front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Monday...

Updated the forecast to better reflect latest radar trends. Will
also adjust low temperatures overnight as some sites have
already over achieved.

As of 655 PM Monday...

Will update the forecast to raise POPs in the path of the
approaching thunderstorms.

As of 208 PM Monday...

Latest radar mosaic shows mainly dry conditions are in place
across the area. However, showers and storms were developing
well to our northwest. These storm will be the forecast issue
through early Tuesday.

The reason for this is that there is still some discrepancy
of the track of a developing MCS between the models. A few
models suggest a track well to our north while others dive the
feature southeast across portions or our forecast area.

Current thinking is that an area of showers and storms
developing across portions of IL/IN at this time could move
across our south early this evening. Other storms located across
WI will impact our northern counties later.

SPC has the much of the area in slight risk with enhanced risk
of severe storms creeping into Perry/Morgan/Washington counties
in Ohio. For more detail regarding the severe threat...see the
latest SPC Day 1 outlook /SWODY1/.

Combination of abundant moisture and the possibility of training
storms may result in water issues with the storms. Because of
this, WPC has our entire area in marginal risk of excessive
rainfall with some of our southeast Ohio counties in slight
risk.

Once the storms push southeast Tuesday morning, dry conditions
should prevail. Models indicate the upper high that is centered
over the southern plains will shift east bringing very warm and
even hot temperatures to our area by Tuesday afternoon.

Combination of temperatures in the 90s across the lowlands with
dewpoint temperatures well into the 70s will make it feel like
105 to 110 degrees. Currently coordinating with our neighbors on
possibly upgrading the excessive heat watch to a warning across
portions of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Continued hot and humid on Wednesday, along with additional
rounds of showers and storms, particularly across the north and
east as a frontal boundary lingers across the area. Heat
warnings and/or advisories look to continue to be likely across
the lowlands during this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Monday...

Upper ridge will continue to remain across the eastern U.S. with hot
and humid weather continuing. Looking like additional heat
advisories may be necessary on this day across much of the lowlands.
A cold front will come through late Thursday night into Friday,
finally bringing a return of drier, less humid, and cooler weather
into the forecast area for the remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 655 PM Monday...

Some showers and thunderstorms this evening will cause IFR
restrictions and strong gusty winds. Outside of the
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions. Areas that get rainfall
and then clear out cloud see dense fog later tonight.

A cumulus deck can be expected on Tuesday. Initially there could
be some MVFR conditions with the deck, but it will raise to VFR.
There is a small chance that an afternoon thunderstorm could
cause restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight. High Tuesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity, and location of
showers/storms tonight could vary. Timing and location of fog
tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       TUE 06/14/22
UTC 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
EDT 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for WVZ005>010-013>019-024>029.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY

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