Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves up from the southeast today with afternoon
and evening storms. Moisture remains on Sunday, with a cold
front Monday. High pressure and dry weather on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Overall forecast thinking remains similar from previous shifts.
Upper wave/low moving northeast from southeastern states, along
with diurnal heating, will continue to create showers and
thunderstorms through late this evening. Storms will be slow to
move due to overall light flow pattern, and brief heavy
downpours can occur. However, no flooding/water issues are
anticipated. Storms will generally die off late tonight with
loss of heating and as wave continues to move out of the area,
with mainly dry conditions expected overnight. Fog still remains
a possibility overnight, but coverage and extent highly
uncertain and will largely depend on clearing and coverage of
precipitation today.

Lingering moisture on Sunday, combined with diurnal heating will
result in additional showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned by
previous forecaster, dry air at mid and upper levels will result
in the potential for isolated strong downdrafts Sunday
afternoon/evening, with model soundings indicating potential for Dcape
values over 1000 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

A cold front will approach and pass through the area Sunday
night into Monday introducing another round of showers and
thunderstorms for the region. Rain chances peak Monday morning
into the early afternoon, with dry weather quickly building back
into the region after the front passes through, then continuing
across the area through Tuesday night. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible as the front moves through on Monday.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be seasonable,
with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70s for the
lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The long term period begins Wednesday morning with lingering surface
high pressure over the area exiting eastward, with a warm front
slowly approaching the area from the southwest. This boundary
will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms back into
the region beginning on Wednesday as it slowly lifts across the
region late Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be seasonable, with a warming trend beginning on
Thursday as the front lifts through. By Friday, high
temperatures will be in the upper 80s for the lowlands, with
well above normal temperatures continuing into Saturday, along
with muggy conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
decrease once the front passes through, with rain chances being
more of the isolated nature for Friday and Saturday. Did
lower PoPs a bit from guidance during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through 03Z, with
brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Outside of storms, VFR with light
surface winds expected.

After 06Z, patchy MVFR/IFR fog is expected to develop,
particularly in areas that receive clearing and precipitation
from Saturday afternoon convection. Any fog will dissipate by
13Z with a return of VFR conditions with light surface winds.

Convection will refire on Sunday, particularly after 16Z. Some
storms on Sunday will be capable of strong/damaging wind gusts
and hail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with
showers/storms on Saturday may vary from forecast. Fog
development and extent tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
505 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-150915-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
505 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving thunderstorms could produce isolated flooding issues this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms producing damaging winds or
large hail on Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
150915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
505 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms producing damaging winds
or large hail on Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ101-102-141830-
Greenup KY-Carter KY-
200 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Greenup
and northeastern Carter Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gesling, or near Carter Caves State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gesling, Load, Greenbo Lake, Oldtown, Carter, Hopewell and Warnock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8308 3845 8316 3859 8292 3838 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 245DEG 17KT 3844 8305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ101-102-141900-
Greenup KY-Carter KY-
225 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Greenup and southeastern Carter Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 225 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grayson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Hopewell and Hitchins.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 166 and
176.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8306 3842 8303 3842 8282 3824 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 290DEG 12KT 3836 8297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ101-141900-
Greenup KY-
233 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Greenup
County through 300 PM EDT...

At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Load, or 13 miles south of Portsmouth. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Load.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 8301 3860 8294 3855 8288 3850 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 340DEG 1KT 3856 8296

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

14