Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern brings showers and thunderstorms
through Monday night. Unsettled weather continues much of the
work week, then drier air arrives for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Sunday...

Overall, no major changes were made to the inherited forecast.
Still have the potential for severe weather this afternoon and
evening as a shortwave trough deepens across the Ohio Valley
region, with surface low moving northeast towards the Great
Lakes. Increasing winds aloft, dry air aloft, combined with any
instability that is able to increase this afternoon, which at
this point looks to be rather limited due to morning
shower/storm activity/cloud cover, could result in a damaging
wind potential with any storms. In addition, increasing low
level winds across the area/already at about 25 kts according to
the vad wind profile, is slowly transporting much higher pw
content air towards the region, and is already approaching 2
inches just to the west of our CWA.

As we progress into the overnight hours, llj will strengthen and
move east across the area, with showers and storms continuing,
along with the heavy rainfall threat. In addition, surface low
will strengthen as it continues to move into the Great Lakes
region, with a cold front approaching the area, which will end
up somewhere near/just into our SE OH zones towards the end of
the period.

Heaviest showers/storms through tonight/Monday morning will
mainly be across SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region, transitioning
east on Monday across much of the remainder of the forecast
area.

Essentially in a nut shell, system with good upper dynamics,
with potential for severe/heavy rain particularly if much in the
way of instability is able to be realized today, with an
increasing heavy downpour threat tonight due to increasing jet
dynamics.

Issued a flood watch for flash flooding through Monday morning
across northern zones where heaviest/greatest coverage is
expected through tonight. Monday, not overly confident a flood watch
will be needed farther east as better dynamics will be to the
north of the CWA but that will be for future shifts to evaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 129 PM Sunday...

The cold front will move very slowly south southeast on Monday
night, perhaps exiting the south of the area by Tuesday
morning. Meanwhile, showers and storm could continue into
Tuesday.

Expecting a prolong period of rainfall will likely saturate the
terrain, making it possible to flood with less rainfall. Nearly
saturate terrain, plus heavy rainfall within showers and storms will
result in flooding issues. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is
present areawide for Monday and Monday night. A Flood Watch remains
in effect through Monday morning.

The cold front pushes south early Tuesday with precipitation
gradually tapering off during the day. A few showers could linger to
the southeast through the afternoon, while drier conditions are
expected to return to the remainder of the area.

Models indicate a H500 weak ridge develops Tuesday night, bringing
drier conditions into Wednesday morning. However, another H500
trough will bring upper level forcing needed to sustain showers or
storms late Wednesday. There will be better chances for convection
on Thursday with the crossing of another cold front.

Temperatures will remains below normal on Monday, with highs
remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, with upper
60s to 70s in the mountains. Tuesday's temperatures will be around
normal, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s
along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

The cold front should move south of the area by 12Z Friday,
allowing a surface high pressure to build from the north.
Therefore, expect dry conditions Friday through early Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will be with a passing H500
shortwave later on next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal on Wednesday, then
become more seasonable for the rest of the work week, before
rising back above normal next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

Mainly local MVFR and IFR conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through 03-05Z Monday, although IFR/LIFR or worse
conditions are possible in vicinity of storms due to heavy
downpours, and strong, gusty, erratic winds are also possible. After
05Z, more widespread MVFR conditions/ceilings will gradually take
hold, along along with continued scattered rain and isolated
thunderstorms. Overall light surface winds during the period outside
of storms, although a period of llws is possible across the mid Ohio
Valley region, including at site KPKB in the 06Z to 12Z time
frame.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms and associated
restrictions may vary. Timing of development of widespread MVFR
conditions overnight into Monday may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. IFR fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     029>032.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1001 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>028-033-034-039-040-515>526-181415-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell-Wyoming-
Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1001 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard.

In addition, heavy rainfall could create localized flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Repeating showers and thunderstorms will cause an increased risk for
flash flooding on Monday. There is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-029>032-
181415-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
1001 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
543 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

OHZ075-085-WVZ008-009-017-172215-
Athens OH-Meigs OH-Jackson WV-Wirt WV-Wood WV-
543 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Meigs,
southeastern Athens, west central Wirt, north central Jackson and
southwestern Wood Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 543 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pomeroy, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, Belpre, Coolville, Forked Run State Park, New Haven,
Washington, Tuppers Plains, Lubeck, Chester, Syracuse, Belleville,
Reedsville, Darwin, Blennerhassett, Rockport, Morristown and
Portland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 156 and 169.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 8157 3904 8148 3898 8193 3899 8194
      3899 8198 3900 8198 3915 8205 3925 8172
      3922 8173 3922 8170 3927 8169 3928 8165
      3928 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 253DEG 27KT 3909 8193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

09