Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers/storms through this evening. High
pressure yields drier conditions Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Cold front will continue to work southeastward across our region
into the evening with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms continuing to develop in advance the front. Storms
have so far favored our northern counties where better shear
exists with the cells on the more southern end of the
developing line remaining weak. Models soundings show a capping
inversion aloft that is shown to weaken through time, so storms
should intensify as they continue to work eastward deeper into
our CWA, coincident with peak heating. Despite less shear over
our southern CWA, DCAPE suggests severe wind potential. Due to
these factors, Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
most of our WV counties through 10 pm this evening.

The front hangs up a tad over our far southern counties into
the evening and a few showers may linger down there throughout
the night. Otherwise, fog and low clouds will develop overnight
into Wednesday morning with patchy dense fog likely.

High pressure wedges into the region on Wednesday with the now
stalled front residing just to our south necessitating a small
PoP over our far southern counties. An upper level trough will
also be swinging across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley
late in the day and this my fuel a rogue shower or storm across
our far northwest counties during the afternoon. Otherwise, it
will be a pleasant day with comfortable humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

In the wake of the cold front from Tuesday night, showers will
remain a possibility to our south for the rest of Wednesday
along VA and southeast WV due to parallel flow along the
boundary. This is courtesy of an upper level long wave trough
keeping the feature relatively quasi-stationary along that
region. This upper level feature will also promote slight
chances of rain where the region of greatest divergence aloft
and rising motion will exist across northwestern Ohio Valley
through Wednesday. The upper level trough hangs around for
Thursday, but models keep us dry due to surface high pressure
moving in although we cannot rule out the possibility of an
isolated shower or two somewhere across the area, especially
during peak heating hours as well as lifting potential from the
upper trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

The aforementioned upper level trough stays around for Friday,
but models hint at the area remaining dry with surface high
pressure continuing to maintain itself over the area. By
Saturday, lower heights and a few disturbances push into the
area and will start to spread chances for showers and storms
over the weekend, mainly staring on Sunday. This will ensure an
active weather pattern going into the new work week as another
long wave trough parks across the region reinforcing unsettled
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Line of thunderstorms should continue to congeal along and to
the east of the Ohio River and then move to the southeast
across most terminals this afternoon into the evening.
Thunderstorms will contain brief IFR conditions, heavy
downpours, gusty winds and perhaps some small hail.

Fog and/or stratus will develop overnight with IFR or lower
conditions likely for most locations late tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of rain and storms may vary.
Timing and coverage of fog/stratus overnight may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/JZ
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ABE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
452 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526-130900-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
452 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a front moving across
from the north, peaking during the afternoon and evening. Storms may
potentially become severe with gusty winds the main threat. Stronger
cells may also produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause water
issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-130900-
Perry-Morgan-
452 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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